EARNINGS WARNING season creeping up. If we do hit the targets I suggested last wendsday, 2350-2400, which I doubt now, now far can we go before the market begins to hear real truth of how long it will take to see a recovery.
I do think TECH is in a SECULAR BEAR, and so will the overall market in the near future. We had an ample opportunity from 4/4-to today 5/11 about 5 weeks to rally to the highs, but we have hit serious resistance at the 2220 level and 11k on the dow as most MONEY MANAGERS cannot qualify the current prices. We simply have run out of gas for the time being and we should sink below 1950 in the next few weeks and 10,600 in the DOW.
I base my 5/15-9/1 opinion on EARNINGS, and outlook going forward. This market has a long time of back filling and I do think we will retest 1600-1300 before Novemeber.
It will crush hopes of many retail investors when tech companies say they still have NO VISABILITY, or extremely LIMITED visability, and we will not see improvement until......................................................................SECOND HALF OF 2002!!!!!!!!
I still have my eyes on several stocks I will long trade, but the list is just TOO EXPENSIVE currently.
In conclusion I do not see the current valuations in the tech world sustainable. As V-Man said we are very close to 5000K valuations on NASD stocks based on earnings COMPRESSION. I would sell any possible rallies and find some stocks that will double or triple on the SHORT side. Next week is truth telling in FIBRE CHANNEL stocks. QLGC reports and a few others.........watch what they say about the future.
OSX update, oil service stocks are still in take-of mode. The crude price just won't break 29 yet! I'm trading these stocks but buying on weakness for a BULLISH inventory report on tuesday.
Retail looks like the best sector to short in the DOW. I started to short GPS, and will add in the coming week. Dow will get hit as earnings warnings of the majors hit the wires.
Reccession update. I believe this slow down is only beginning. The world will be next, and by nest summer we will be in a full world reccession. Greeny is going to have to change his tone as quickly as he did before regarding inflation. All the ingredients are in the pot for STAGFLATION which is worse then vanilla inflation!!
Any history buffs should research tech stocks from 75-85 and tell me if they lagged the market!
ENERGY< ENERGY< POWER, COAL..............................this is where the money will be made on the buy and hold for the next 3-5 years. Throw in a few BIO-TECHS CRA, MYGN, ABI, PDLI, ABGX, and you have a powerful port!
MOABO is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
