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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD
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To: stock talk who wrote (2252)3/10/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: ratlong  Read Replies (1) of 3115
 
I don't know the source but I do know Cayenne- they are a business partner as well.

In the past, I have heard acceptable to good technical reviews for Object Team while I have heard less than steller reviews of Rose. Cayenne is the combination of two companies- one specializing in OO modeling and the other in database modeling, which is where Terrain comes from.

I think their challenge is that 45% marketshare for RATL is going to be tough to take back. Once people start using visual modeling tools, unless the UML and MS Repository technology deliver sooner than expected, interoperability between products is going to be elusive. Therefore, getting customers to change products when there is such a significant investment in training and knowledge, will be difficult.

RATL also has an advantage over Cayenne and almost every other company in that they provide solutions across the software development life cycle. The only company who can compete here is PLAT.

I just reviewed PLAT whitepapers and if the quality in these documents is any indication of their products qualities, they have big troubles. PLAT has acquired a huge number of companies and I don't hear about them as much as I used too- they seem to be retrenching. Anyway, PLAT and RATL seem to be in a different class than RATL and CAYN- just my impression.

For all companies competing against RATL, they face an uphill battle as they are basically competing against MSFT. For the sceptics of the visual modeler deal with MSFT- you atleast have to admit that it blocks competition.

Finally, we have seen expectations being moved downwards over the past couple of days. RATL has entered their quiet period, I believe, and only DMG moved their estimates down. That means Goldman and H&Q were confident. I think that is a good sign because RATL could have taken the opportunity to align peoples expectations. I expect good things from RATL this quarter.
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