Toy, I also try to look far into the future. And for the next 2-3 years, I see the price of MSFT going up.
I agree that MSFT has dropped the ball when it comes to the internet. However, I believe that you don't see the bigger picture. The secret to MSFT's success, is that they are NOT dependent on any one piece of software (like CE), or even any one business paradigm.
MSFT has the ability to reinvent itself. That is perhaps their biggest advantage. Ballmer, Gates and top management understand that they face a huge challenge, and they are ready to face it aggressively.
They have huge resources, and great talent depth. CE not good enough? Cool, we'll come up with something differet. Don't have a browser? Navigator is way ahead? Cool, we'll make IE, and work on it, and work on it, and work on it, till it's better (BTW, IMO, IE5 is way better than the Nav).
You, as so many other techies see the trees in great detail. But you miss the forest. Any half-ass programmer or IT guy can point out problems with any particular product from MSFT. But that blinds you to the overall picture. MSFT is an extremely dynamic company. They have already reinvented themselves several times. They better their products, they are relentless in entering markets, they are formidable competitors, and they continue to evolve.
Any tech person who has been alive in the last 15 years can tell you about every challenge that was supposed to be the end of MSFT. And one by one, MSFT overcame.
I cannot look out 5 years into the future, and pretend to know exactly where MSFT will be. I think it is foolish to predict it's demise. **Odds** are that with their resources, they will be around - how dominant, I don't know.
What I do know, is that at least for the next 2-3 years, MSFT will still be King of the Hill. Beyond that, I don't know - but guess what, I don't believe *ANYONE* knows. Technology and the economy evolves too rapidly and too unpredictably.
Regards,
Morgan |
