The $CRB definitely beginning to break south of its three year uptrend lower trend line (day old chart, worse today, SC will update after market close):
stockcharts.com
Note the $CRB is based on spot/futures and does not include gas/oils or PMs:
crbtrader.com
It's half-brother, the Morgan Stanley Commodity Index, is based on commodity company equity prices, and does include hydrocarbons and PMs:
finance.yahoo.com
The $CRX has not as yet broken its LT uptrend lower trend line:
stockcharts.com
Conventional wisdom might imply that, as is considered true for PMs, the equities should lead the futures/spot prices, which would say look at the $CRX, and don't panic yet. But the $CRB break downwards is hard to ignore. More conventional wisdom says that bond prices are generally inverse to the commodities index, which gives an investment consideration. As far as commodities inverse funds, I find only two narrow focus funds, SNPIX (oil/gas) and SPPIX (PMs). I would advise keeping an eye on the $CRX. If it starts to break down and follow the $CRB, then a large commodities downturn is in the cards. JMO, FWIW.
NC |
