I took another look at Tyco (chart) over the weekend, and drew the following conclusions:
(With the help of a friend)..
If you pull out a 10 year chart on Tyco, Tyco has risen within a pretty consistent channel for almost all of that time....get out the ruler and pencil and draw the lines.....obviously, the period from November 1999-July 2000 was a break of that........BUT, logically, since the accounting-thing is now a mute point, I am assuming that Tyco will (at a minimum) resume the previous pattern.....for, nothing has really changed for this company (since this mess started)...they still have the same management (with the same expertise in acquisitions), Tyco addresses similar markets to before, with similar growth rates (although you could argue that they now have entered even faster growing markets-underwater cable, etc)...it is a pretty boring (!) growth company
So, I think 30-40% p.a going forward is reasonable....of course, I'll gladly take more, and perhaps we will establish a newer, higher-sloped channel coming out of the mess of the past 6 months..
Finally, my friend and I agreed....after the total breakdown after November 1999....and comeback...and then, relatively flat period....that when Tyco broke out (Friday, a week ago)...it would have been A MUCH BIGGER breakout....for a lot of energy was created (in the period November 1999-July 2000)....hopefully, we have some good stock appreciation to come (in the next few weeks)..But it was surprising that we didnt get more of a pop (on the news Friday a week ago).. |
