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Politics : A US National Health Care System?

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From: TimF	10/20/2007 10:17:43 PM
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Checking The Numbers on the Alzheimer's Test pipeline.corante.com "..People look at tests with small error rates--a false positive rate of, say, .5%, and conclude that if they test positive, that means it's overwhelmingly likely that they have the disease. But this is true only for conditions that are relatively frequent. Take a test for a disease that has a false positive rate of 5%, and a disease prevalence of 1 in 1000--lupus, say. If you test positive in a random assay, what are the odds that you actually have the disease? Most people--even, apparently, a shocking number of doctors--would say that the odds are 95%. But this is all wrong. If you test 1,000 people for lupus, 1 of them will correctly test positive for lupus--and 50 of them will falsely test positive. The chances are only 1 in 51, less than 2%, that you actually have the disease..." meganmcardle.theatlantic.com

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