Will Pakistani-Afghan Pact Spell The Taliban's End?
By Captain Ed on War on Terror
Captain's Quarters
The Times of London reports that a new pact between Pakistan and Afghanistan regarding border security will force the Taliban to run for cover. Pervez Musharraf will travel to Kabul for the first time in two years to seal the treaty and to coordinate the implementation of the new border protocols:
<<< Kabul and Islamabad have been blaming each other for allowing Islamic militants to cross the 1,500-mile (2,400km) frontier and attack security forces. Yesterday Pakistan took a big step towards ending the fighting in the lawless Waziristan region when it signed a peace deal with tribal leaders. The agreement commits local militants to halt attacks on both sides of the border.
In return Pakistan will reduce its military presence and compensate tribesmen whose relatives have been killed or whose properties have been damaged.
A key provision of the deal is that tribesmen will expel foreign fighters from the area. The region is believed to be a haven for al-Qaeda fighters and members of the former Taleban regime in Afghanistan. Without a base in Pakistan their operations could be seriously disrupted. >>>
ABC News reports that the deal means significantly less than the Times assumes. Led by former counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke, ABC's The Blotter analyzes this as a complete surrender. An inside source in the Pakistani government underscores this analysis by noting that Osama bin Laden could live peacefully in Pakistan under the agreement, as long as he remained peaceful.
However, it does appear that the two agreements add up to something other than an abject surrender. It seems more likely that Hamid Karzai would reject any such sanctuary for Taliban fighters, not embrace it and embrace Musharraf after allowing that to develop. After all, a free reign in Waziristan would allow the Islamists to gather their strength and attack in force. Karzai does not want Musharraf's friendship so desperately that he would commit suicide for it, nor does Musharraf have any particular love of the radicals that have twice tried to assassinate him.
Musharraf wants to visit Karzai to put a coordinated plan for security in the cross-border region. That makes it look much more like Musharraf bought the cooperation of local tribes in an effort to flush out the foreign fighters exploiting the territory. That deal did include compensation -- the region has a tradition of blood money -- for lost relatives in earlier fighting. Musharraf wants the tribes out of the way so that the combined forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan -- which means Pakistan and NATO -- can attack the Taliban and their foreign terrorist supporters.
This could be a key development in Afghanistan's efforts to secure its borders and gain control of its nation. Musharraf may have many poor qualities, but thus far he has not surrendered to the Islamist terrorists. He understands that their survival decreases the odds of his own. His trip to Kabul has to have more in play than just a photo op.
UPDATE: Two breaking stories this morning tend to support the Times of London's analysis over that of Dick Clarke and ABC. The Pakistanis "vehemently" deny that Osama bin Laden could live in peace in Pakistan:
<<< "This is absolutely fabricated, absurd. I never said this," Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan told The Associated Press, referring to an ABC News broadcast aired hours earlier.
The ABC report cited Sultan as saying in a telephone interview that al-Qaida chief bin Laden "would not be taken into custody" if found, "as long as one is being like a peaceful citizen."
The recorded comments of Sultan were included in the report, but it was not immediately clear whether he understood that bin Laden was the specific subject of discussion at that point in the interview. Sultan told the AP by telephone early Wednesday that "what they are saying on Osama is absolutely fabricated."
"Pakistan is committed to its policy on the war on terror and Osama, caught anywhere in Pakistan, would be brought to justice," he said. >>>
That sounded rather strange, since Osama had ordered the attempted assassinations on Musharraf earlier. The BBC also reports this morning that the agenda for Musharraf and Karzai has joint efforts against the Taliban at the top of the list. It sounds like the Pakistanis have not "carved out a sanctuary", as Clarke suggests, but have bought off the tribal chiefs in Waziristan in order to flush out the foreign fighters. We'll see what develops.
UPDATE: The estimable Bill Roggio has a much less optimistic take on the situation -- and as always, is well worth the read.
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