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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: loantech who wrote (22737)12/2/2004 11:31:37 AM
From: John Vosilla   of 110194
 
<Russ are you and I missing something here? I read an article the other day seemed to say maybe a greater segment of the population in the USA is making over 100K per year than ever? Maybe that is false memory syndrome I don't know, but how are people buying so much as far as Cars, RV's, McMansions etc,? Sure credit is easy but they have to pay something>

I don't think you are missing anything. Two slogans that might apply these days are "don't bet against the US consumer" and "manias can last much longer than you can remain sane or solvent betting against it" . A funny commercial from Lending Tree.COM on TV shows middle aged man driving around town in his golf cart and laughing at how he is up to his eyeballs in debt shown with his family at the McMansion, his luxury cars, country club membership and other material possessions. No doubt credit has been easy, housing and related businesses have boomed and now we see if the mantel can be carried by capital investment and next generation innovations as the consumer does a fade next year. Only time will tell. I personally look for the stock market as the best leading indicator to be probably headed for a top in January or perhaps as late as April. In the slight chance the likes of Harry S Dent Jr are right we should breakout to new highs and housing doesn't crack. I'm prepared for either scenario though heavily leaning towards a major downturn .
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