from INO
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
Stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday due to technical short covering. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed higher on Wednesday after spiking below February's low crossing at 1261.79 in early session trading. A late-day recovering pushed the index into positive territory and the high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. If the NASDAQ Composite index closes below today's low, the door would be open for a test of the 75% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 1205.95 later this year. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed up 7.77 points at 1279.24. The March S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday and just above February's low crossing at 805.30. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when Thursday's trading begins. However, stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. If the decline continues, last October's low crossing at 774.20 is March's next downside target later this month. The March S&P 500 Index closed up 5.50 points at 805.70.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as a short covering bounce ahead of the close erased early losses. While the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday, this week's breakout below February's low at 7628 has opened the door for a possible test of last October's low crossing at 7197 later this year. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. The Dow closed up 28 points at 7552. More at quotes.ino.com
INTEREST RATES
June bonds closed higher on Wednesday due to weakness in the equity markets. June has extended this week's breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 115-04 and will likely try to gravitate towards the March contract's price. The daily ADX is bullish and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average and then last week's low crossing at 114-00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
The CRB INDEX
The CRB closed lower on Wednesday due to weakness in some grains, precious metals and some foods. The stage is set for a test of the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 240.78, which coincides with the 2002 uptrend line crossing near 240.62 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday. I would not rule out a corrective bounce tomorrow as the CRB might try to consolidate some of this week's losses. More at quotes.ino.com
ENERGY MARKETS
The energy markets closed higher on Wednesday as weekly inventory reports showed unexpectedly strong draws in crude oil and unleaded gas supplies. The API inventory report showed a draw of 1.736 million barrels last week. Distillate stocks including heating oil declined by 129,000 barrels however, unleaded gas supplies declined by 4.880 million barrels.
April crude oil posted a key reversal up on Wednesday following the price friendly inventory report erasing all of this week's losses and closed at weekly resistance crossing at 37.80. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 38.20 would open the door for a possible test of the late-February high crossing at 39.99 and could eventually lead to a test of the October 1990 high crossing at 41.15 later this year. Once again the January-February uptrend line crossing near 36.70 held after being tested. It would take closes below last Monday's low crossing at 35.36 to confirm a trendline breakout, which would then open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 33.73. The ADX and MACD are bearish and will need to see additional strength before renewing their bullish modes. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday.
April heating oil closed higher on Wednesday due to light short covering following this week's inventory report, which showed a modest drawn in stocks last week. However, the approaching end to the winter heating season tempered today's gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 102 would signal that a top has likely been posted. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) along with stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. Closes below today's low crossing at 101.90 would confirm a breakout below this year's uptrend line thereby opening the door for a possible test of the mid-February low crossing at 94.20 later this month. Closes above the October 2001 high crossing at 1.11 could lead to a test of the all-
time high posted in December 1979 at 115 later this winter.
April unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday, which was triggered by this week's friendly inventory report that showed a larger-than-expected drawn in gasoline stocks this past week. Today's rebound led to a close just above this year's uptrend line crossing near 111.40. Closes below last week's low crossing at 107.70 are needed to confirm a trendline breakout, which would then open the door for a possible test of the February 20 reaction low crossing at 103. If this winter's rally continues, the May 2001 high crossing at 117.50 is a possible target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turn bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
April Henry Hub natural closed lower for the third day in a row on Wednesday due to long-liquidation. Today's decline led to a test of this winter's uptrend line crossing near 5.75. Closes below this support level would open the door for a test of the 62% retracement level of the November-
February rally crossing at 5.599 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. More at quotes.ino.com
CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's losses. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday. If this month's decline continues, long-term support crossing at 96.65 is a possible target later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or near. However, the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) remains in a bearish mode signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible into the last half of March. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 99.26 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
The June Euro closed lower on Wednesday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. If this winter's rally continues, 111.88 is June's next target. Closes below February's high crossing at 108.70 along with a downturn by stochastics and the RSI would increase the odds that a short-term top has likely been posted.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging, overbought and turning bearish signaling that a top is in or is near. Closes below broken resistance crossing at .7461 would provide additional confirmation that a top has been posted. Until then, the door remains open for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at .7621. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening on Thursday.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking, which confirmed yesterday's huge key reversal down. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday. Closes below the 10-
day moving average crossing at .6739 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at .6672 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turned bearish signaling that a top is in or near.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking and closed below January's high crossing at .8558. June has also broken out below February's uptrend line thereby opening the door for a larger-degree setback as we move into the last half of March. If the decline continues, the previous reaction low crossing at .8485 is the next downside target. Closes below this support level would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the last half of March. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. More at quotes.ino.com
PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
April gold closed lower on Wednesday due to strength in the U.S. Dollar and a delay in the U.N. vote on Iraq, which lessens the threat of immediate war. Today's decline and close below last Friday's low crossing at 347 sets the stage for a test of March's low at 345.20 and possibly February's low at 342.40 later this month. Closes below 342.40 would renew this winter's decline while confirming that the c-wave of the decline off February's high has begun. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March.
May silver closed lower on Wednesday due to spillover weakness from gold. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening on Thursday. However, May remains range bound and needs to close above 4.75 or below 4.55 to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March.
May copper posted an inside day and closed below the December-February uptrend line. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.20 would confirm this week's trendline breakout while opening he door for a test of February's low crossing at 74.40 later this month. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible into the last half of March. More at quotes.ino.com
FOOD & FIBER
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday and is challenging minor support crossing at 58.90. Closes below 58.90 could lead to a test of last August's low crossing at 54.65 later this spring. Closes above broken support crossing at 61.50 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday.
May cocoa posted a huge key reversal up on Wednesday. Early weakness led to a breakout below the 62% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 1930. However, early weakness failed to trigger follow-through selling resulting in a short covering rebound and a higher close on the day. Despite today's rebound May cocoa remains locked in a trading range. Closes above 2060 or below today's low crossing at 1910 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. If May renews its decline off February's high, the door would be open for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of this winter's decline crossing at 1825 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned bullish hinting that a corrective bounce into late-March is possible. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday.
May sugar closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 25% retracement level of the 2002-03-rally crossing at 798. Today's breakout below the 25% retracement level of the 2002-03-rally crossing at 798 opens the door for a test of January's gap crossing at 745 later this month. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Both daily and weekly momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term.
May cotton posted a key reversal up on Wednesday despite Tuesday's neutral USDA supply-demand report. If this winter's rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 61.15 is a possible target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish again hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 57.12 would set up a test of this year's uptrend line crossing near 56.42 cents. Closes below this support level are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May corn posted a key reversal up on Wednesday due to short covering and filled yesterday's gap at 2.36. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. However, bulls will need to see another strong weekly export sales report to temper the bearish short-term outlook in the corn market following yesterday's bearish supply-demand report. Closes above psychological resistance crossing at 2.40 are needed to rekindle bullish hope for a seasonal rebound into early spring. If the decline off last week's high continues, a test of this winter's low crossing at 2.31 1/4 is possible later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term.
May wheat posted an outside day down as it closed lower on Wednesday due to expectations for another disappointing export sales report on Thursday. Today's close below psychological support crossing at 3.00 has opened the door for a test of last June's reaction low crossing at 2.91 1/2 and possibly the contract low at 2.87 later this year. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as bearish weather conditions in North and South America pressured the market. Losses were somewhat exaggerated due to thin trading volume as May erases all of Tuesday's gains and remains below this year's uptrend line. Today's low-range close leaves the door open for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline off February's high resumes, February's low crossing at 5.52 1/2 is a potential target later this month.
May soybean meal posted an inside day but closed below this year's uptrend line crossing near 172.70 on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Closes below last Friday's low at 170.50 would confirm a trendline breakout while opening the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 165.20 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. More at quotes.ino.com
LIVESTOCK and MEATS
April hogs closed higher on Wednesday due to firmer cash bids and sharply higher bellies. Today's higher close confirmed yesterday's upside reversal and sets the stage for a test of this year's downtrend line crossing near 53.62 possibly later this week. Closes above this year's downtrend line crossing near 53.62 are needed to confirm a bottom and signal that a trend change is taking place. The high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Close below February's low crossing at 51.50 would set the stage for a test of the 50% retracement level of the 2002-03 rally crossing at 50.23. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but diverging, which hints that a low might be in or is near.
April cattle gapped down on the open however, a short covering rally led to a higher close on the day as it consolidated some of yesterday's loss. Despite today's rebound April remains below broken support marked by the 50% retracement level of the 2002-03-rally crossing at 73.37. If this year's decline continues, the 62% retracement level of the 2002-03 rally crossing at 71.78 is April's next downside target later this month. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. |
