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The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
Stock indexes closed mixed on Friday as war concerns erased early-session gains. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed slightly lower on Friday after gapping higher on the open due to spillover short covering following Thursday's impressive rally. However, war concerns with Iraq triggered a sell off and a slightly lower close on the day. Today's high fell just short of testing March's high crossing at 1353.31. Closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are diverging and turned neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible into the last half of March. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed down 0.53 points at 1340.24. The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday due to spillover short covering following Thursday's high-range close. However, profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's trading begins. Closes above February's high crossing at 853.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the last half of March. The June S&P 500 Index closed up 0.90 points at 833.10.
The Dow closed higher on Friday due to spillover short covering following Thursday's sharp rally and high-range close. However, war fears muted some of today's gains as profit taking ahead of the close tempered early gains. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Monday. The Dow needs to close above February's high crossing at 8076 to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If this winter's decline continues, last October's low crossing at 7197 is a possible target later this year. Momentum indicators are diverging and turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or near. The Dow closed up 38 points at 7859. More at quotes.ino.com
INTEREST RATES
June bonds closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's loss ahead of the weekend. Uncertainty over the situation regarding Iraq and the economy will continue to provide underlying support to the market. At the same time, Thursday's downturn by the daily ADX strongly suggests that a short-term top has been posted or is near. Yesterday's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114-26 has opened the door for a test of this year's uptrend line crossing near 113-05 later this month. Closes below this support level are needed to confirm a top while opening the door for additional weakness into early spring. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday.
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ENERGY MARKETS
The energy markets closed lower on Friday due to profit taking. Early weakness was triggered by news that Saudi Arabia is sending more than a dozen oil tankers to the U.S., which pushed crude oil prices to five-week lows. However, short covering across the board in the afternoon session tempered some of today's losses.
April crude oil closed lower on Friday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down. Today's decline led to a spike below this year's uptrend line crossing near 35.15 but fell short of testing the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 33.73. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the last half of March. The ADX and MACD are bearish and signal that additional weakness is possible near-term.
April heating oil extended Thursday's decline spiking below the 38% retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at 94.21 and tested the November-January uptrend line crossing near 91.75. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss leaving the door open for sideways trading on Monday. Closes below this year's uptrend line would confirm that a trend change has taken place. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) along with stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. I would not rule out a short covering bounce on Monday.
April unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it extended Thursday's breakout below the 25% retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at 106.38 and spiked below the November-January uptrend line crossing near 104. Closes below this uptrend line would confirm a top while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the last half of March. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday as a corrective bounce is possible off the aforementioned uptrend line.
April Henry Hub natural closed modestly higher on Friday. Early weakness was tied to spillover selling following Thursday's low-range close. However, today's decline fell short of testing the November-December uptrend line crossing near 5.00. A short covering rally ahead of the close erased early losses as April ended the day in positive territory ahead of the weekend. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Monday as the market has become oversold given this week's sharp decline. Closes below the November-December uptrend line could lead to a test of the 75% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 4.88 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term.
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CURRENCY FUTURES | REAL TIME FOREX
The June Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's short covering rally, which left a six-day island bottom on the daily chart. Early strength was due to spillover short covering following Thursday's high-range close. However, profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains and the mid-range close leaves the door open for some consolidation on Monday. If June extends this week's rebound, the 25% retracement level of the June-
March decline crossing at 101.59, which coincides with February's high at 101.65 are the next upside targets later this month. Closes above these two resistance levels are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish with this week's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the last half of March.
The June Euro extended Thursday's breakout below the December-February uptrend line and closed below the 25% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 107.473. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. If this week's decline continues, February's low crossing at 106.16 and then the 38% retracement level crossing at 105.64 are potential targets later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
The June Swiss Franc closed below the 25% retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at .7381 on Friday as it extended yesterday's breakout below broken the November-
February uptrend line thereby confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Today's low fell short of testing the 38% retracement level crossing at .7260 before a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
The June Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal up on Friday due to short covering following a test of the 25% retracement level of the November-March rally crossing at .6680. Additional strength on Monday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern, which could lead to a resumption of this winter's rally. If this week's decline continues, this year's uptrend line crossing near .6652 is June's next downside target. Closes below this support level are needed before a top can be confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March.
The June Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's loss but remains below the 25% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at .8499. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. If this week's decline continues, the 38% retracement level crossing at .8408 and then the December-
February uptrend line crossing near .8355 are possible targets later this month. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Monday although additional consolidation below the 25% retracement level is possible. More at quotes.ino.com
PRECIOUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
April gold posted an inside day with a slightly higher close due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 335.90. Gains were limited due to strength in the U.S. Dollar and the equity markets. However, today's mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. If this winter's decline continues, the August-October uptrend line crossing near 328, then the 75% retracement level crossing at 323 are April's next downside targets later this month.
May silver posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Friday as it consolidated some Thursday's loss. Closes below February's low crossing at 4.495 would renew this winter's decline while opening the door for a test of November's low at 4.44 and possibly test of the contract low crossing at 4.32 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
May copper closed modestly higher due to light short covering on Friday as it consolidates around the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 75.42. Despite today's rebound, May copper remains below the December-February uptrend line. If the decline off February's high continues, February's low crossing at 74.40 is a possible target later this month. The mid to upper-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible into the last half of March. More at quotes.ino.com
FOOD & FIBER
May coffee posted an outside day up on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend as it consolidates above minor support crossing at 58.90. Closes below 58.90 could lead to a test of last August's low crossing at 54.65 later this spring. Closes above broken support crossing at 61.50 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and RSI are diverging and turning neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-
term. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a steady opening on Monday.
May cocoa posted an outside day up on Friday while extending the late-winter trading range. Closes above 2060 or below this week's low crossing at 1910 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. If May renews this winter's decline, the door would be open for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of this winter's decline crossing at 1825 later this year. However, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned bullish hinting that a corrective bounce into late-March is possible. The upper-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday.
May sugar closed higher on Friday due to short covering but remains below broken support marked by the 25% retracement level of the 2002-03-rally crossing at 798. Today's low fell just short of testing the upper boundary of January's gap crossing at 755. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near.
May cotton posted a new contract high on Friday. The upper-
range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday. If this winter's rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 61.15 is a possible target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 57.12 would set up a test of this year's uptrend line crossing near 56.42 cents. Closes below this support level are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS & SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May corn closed lower on Friday and below minor support crossing at 2.33 3/4 thereby opening the door for a test of this winter's low crossing at 2.31 1/4 early next week. If this support level gives way, the contract low at 2.29 is a possible target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of March. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. It would take closes above broken support crossing at 2.36 1/4 to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market while opening the door for a possible test of psychological resistance crossing at 2.40. Closes above 2.40 are needed to rekindle bullish hope for a seasonal rebound into early spring.
May wheat posted a downside reversal on Friday after early strength, which led to a spike above broken trading range support crossing at 3.06 failed to attract additional buying into the market. Spillover weakness from corn along with chances for rain across portions of the Plains next week added to the bearish tone in late trading. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday, which could lead to a test of Wednesday's low at 2.94 1/2 and possibly last June's reaction low crossing at 2.91 1/2 early next week. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned neutral hinting that a low might be in or near. Closes above 3.06 along with an upturn by these momentum indicators would increase the odds that a short-term low has been posted.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans closed fractionally lower on Friday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's gains ahead of the weekend. Despite today's setback, May beans closed above this year's uptrend line crossing near 5.72. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the last half of March. If the rebound off last week's low continues, trading range resistance crossing at 5.78 1/2 and then February's high crossing at 5.83 3/4 are potential targets later this month.
May soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's short covering rebound off this year's uptrend line crossing near 173.30. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday however, I would not rule out a setback after closing higher for the past two days. Today's high tested minor resistance marked by the mid-February high crossing at 176. Closes above 176 would open the door for a possible test of the late-
February high crossing at 181 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the last half of March. More at quotes.ino.com
LIVESTOCK and MEATS
April hogs closed modestly higher on Friday in quiet trading as it extended this week's short covering bounce and closed above broken support marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2002 rally crossing at 52.65. Closes above this year's downtrend line crossing near 53.60 are needed before a bottom can be confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. The upper-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Monday. Close below February's low crossing at 51.50 would renew this winter's decline while setting the stage for a test of the 50% retracement level of the 2002-03 rally crossing at 50.23.
April cattle closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's short covering rally and spiked above Monday's high at 74.90. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.42 and then Monday's high at 74.90 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If April extends this week's rebound, it could lead to a test of February's downtrend line crossing near 75.95. However, today's mid-range close hints that the initial short covering bounce off Wednesday's low might have run its course. The stage is set for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices is possible into the last half of March. If this year's decline resumes, the 62% retracement level of the 2002-03 rally crossing at 71.78 is April's next downside target later this month. More at quotes.ino.com
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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WINNERS
FFY Federal Funds 30day Cash 1.310 0.080 +6.50
SBK3 Sugar #11 World May 2003 7.85 0.24 +3.15
NGJ3 Henry Hub Natural Gas Apr 2003 5.429 0.094 +1.75
CLZ5 Light Sweet Crude Oil Dec 2005 23.81 0.39 +1.64
OJU3 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Sep 2003 89.95 1.35 +1.51
CCH4 Cocoa Mar 2004 1872 28 +1.49
OK3 Oats May 2003 176 2 1/2 +1.44
KCH3 Coffee 'C' Mar 2003 57.70 0.80 +1.40
CTN3 Cotton Jul 2003 60.69 0.71 +1.19
ZDM3 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Jun 2003 7880 78 +1.00
LOSERS
PNJ3 Propane Apr 2003 0.5550 -0.0350 -5.93
CLK3 Light Sweet Crude Oil May 2003 33.36 -1.30 -3.75
HON3 Heating Oil Jul 2003 0.8180 -0.0253 -3.01
HUZ3 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Dec 20 0.7698 -0.0227 -2.89
GIJ3 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Apr 2003 248.00 -5.40 -2.14
NGH4 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2004 5.204 -0.110 -2.09
CH3 Corn Mar 2003 230 -4 3/4 -2.02
WN3 Wheat Jul 2003 295 3/4 -6 -1.99
SMZ4 Soybean Meal Dec 2004 151.3 -2.9 -1.88
CCU4 Cocoa Sep 2004 1843 -30 -1.62
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E X T R E M E S T O C K S
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WINNERS
CETV Central Euro Media Enter'A' 13.55 2.10 +18.34
EP El Paso Corp 5.20 0.80 +18.18
ISTA ISTA Pharmaceuticals 6.55 1.00 +18.02
DRCO Dynamics Research 11.55 1.58 +15.85
HITK Hi-Tech Pharmacal 17.56 2.15 +13.95
NOR-D Northwestern Cap Fin III 8.1% 12.50 1.45 +13.12
CDT Cable Design Technologies 5.52 0.62 +12.65
NOR-A NWPS Cap Fin 8.125% Tr Sec 1 13.35 1.48 +12.47
LAN Lancer Corp 6.49 0.69 +11.90
ADY Mer Lyn 8% Callable'STRIDES' 32.95 3.45 +11.69
LOSERS
CGX Consolidated Graphics 15.50 -7.10 -31.42
ESITE Express Scripts $4.83 Sec Tr 66.01 -24.8650 -27.36
ALN Allen Telecom 10.00 -3.58 -26.36
ANDW Andrew Corp 5.84 -1.98 -25.32
BEBE bebe Stores 12.01 -2.3390 -16.30
CDCY CompuDyne Corp 5.11 -0.99 -16.23
MON Monsanto Co 14.07 -2.51 -15.14
SBL Symbol Technologies 9.30 -1.40 -13.08
HLTH WebMD Corp 8.46 -1.20 -12.42
OVER Overture Services 14.19 -1.96 -12.14
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