I'm not going to post anything new here that those of us reading these threads don't already know, but the following is a summary from 2 of our most bearish analyst houses, CSFB and GS(BofA is in their camp too), that was posted on this thread earlier today.
From CSFB
Message 21244022
<< Note that street consensus estimates for front-end stocks still call for 2H sequential EPS growth of 32% H/H and ’06 growth of 42% y/y – versus our expectation that ’06 will decline 10-15% y/y.>>
Now that is quite a statement. Since NVLS reports on a FY year that coincides with the CY year, CSFB is saying that growth will decline 10 to 15 percent in 06 compared to 05 - that says falling growth for the next 20 months.
<<We are initiating 2006 estimates at $1.25bb (down ~2.7% y/y) and $0.75; street consensus is at $1.53bb and $1.32.>>
So CSFB is saying that their revenue estimate is down 280M(-18 percent from present consensus), and their earnings estimate is down 0.57(-43 percent from present consensus estimate). With falling growth for the next 20 months, when do we ever see an increase in stock price? If CSFB is right, not for a long, long time.
From GS
Message 21245011
<<For the second quarter, Goldman expects Novellus' orders to be down about 5% sequentially due to slower investment by DRAM customers through 2005. The research firm reduced its already-below-consensus 2005 and 2006 earnings-per-share estimates on Novellus to 73 cents and 55 cents, respectively, from 75 cents and 65 cents.>>
GS is even more negative than CSFB. Present consensus estimates for NVLS were 0.96 and 1.32. The GS estimates are down from the consensus estimates by -24 and -58 percent respectively. Earnings from 05 of 0.73 to 06 of 0.55 is a reduction of 25 percent. One might ask, where is the growth?
And also, at this point, what happens in 07? - further reductions? Maybe the entire semi-equip section will hold a "fire sale" in 06 and just go out of business? |
