While the soap opera on Yahoo is fun to read every once in awhile, how can one pass up Diana taunting us with her fake wedding proposals and the unabashed RATL bullishness of SI?
Anyway, I don't mind at all. I spoke with an informed observer today who agrees that the shipment delays, if correct, would be substantial. He is going to do a little research and try to contact some sources. If I hear anything, I will let people know.
You are going to struggle with RATL IR right now. They are in a quiet period and it sounds like everything is going to voice mail. While it is probably far fetched, it is humorous to consider whether the leak last year was a slip of the tongue during a random call and they have a moratorium on talking to the outside world. It was about a $150M slip of the tongue, so it may not be that farfetched
As for news, I think RATL's PR is surprising poor. If you look at Waggener & Edstrom, which is MSFT's PR firm, they are totally hungry and active- always stuff coming out, whether it is that relevant or not. RATL and their PR firm, Lois Paul & Partners, are definitely slower than expected. Anyone else follow companies being handled by LP&P? I wonder whether it is because Ed Gaudet or some of the other marketing people have left in the past year. Anyway, I agreed with your "sit on good news" theory for awhile, but am no longer convinced- I just don't think they have a very effective PR strategy or firm. The SD Magazine/UML supplement effort was good, but not the steady stream you would like to see. Also, management is not flashy so they could give a crap about a short term upswing- that is also why I don't believe they will exceed numbers- just good steady progress. This is a long term hold for me as it is for all of the insiders who have bought lately.
By the way, had a very interesting discussion on % RATL spends on R&D today, something like $63M- approx. 10%-15% (excuse the approximations- it is late here and don't feel like confirming the exact number). Anyone else consider this a good indicator of future revenue growth? Theory would be software companies have to emerge with new products so often that high % of R&D implies a new product pipeline and while it sacrifices short term EPS,it might implies long term product stability and growth- especially for a company who has a market leading position (holding on to which is so critical).
Anyway, time to get out of here- a long day made longer by Rational rantings... |
