Nigel,
If you think Intel will go down to $80, then I say you definitley
short the stock.
I am not "in love" with Intel, but I am very long in Intel for
purely fundamental reasons. As I see it, there are two basic camps:
the X86 camp (Intel, AMD, and Cyrx) and the UNIX/RISC camp (IBM,
DEC, SUN, HP). IMHO, NT will be the network platform of choice for
the upcoming years. The RISC camp has basically thrown in the towel,
so that leaves the X86 camp. Even if AMD and CYRX sold all of the
chips they could make in the next year or two, this would not
hurt Intel at all. Intel's strategy is to increase the entire market
for X86, so i think they are hoping AMD/CYRX does well. In fact,
I have stock in AMD as well. Just as long as the following
scenerio happens in 1997, Intel will be at least $200 in 97:
1). corporations continue to upgrade their PCs.
2). NT continues to grow as the network operating system of choice.
3). No major hike in interest rates.
Nothing else really matters. Intel continually cuts prices, so just as long as demand remains "reasonably healthy" their margins
will not be hurt becuase of their manufact. superiorities. Also, consumer/retail demand is very anemic right now. Imagine when that picks up. I could go on and
on about manufacturing capabilities, brand name recognition,
overseas market growth, new products, strategic relationships
with PC OEMs, etc.
Intel losing its monopoly to AMD and Cyrx doesn't worry me a bit.
I hope they both do well because this just makes the entire pie
bigger!
regrds,
joey |
