Dabum3, welcome here and what are you talking about. At least here there are people who, as misguided as they are in their political leanings, recognize their right wing tendencies. I think there is hope for all of you. In order to encourage right thinking I will dance naked through my neighborhood this afternooon chanting "rejoice, rejoice, REJOICE." Of course, I have no neighbors so the impact will be muted and there is snow on the ground so I think that I will just think happy and empty non republican thoughts instead. No use in alarming the wildlife. (gg)
On the subject of where the nas is going, I think you all have probably seen at least one of my posts on this issue from sisd. Telemarker found a great article that seems to lend some support for this view. It is extremely lengthy but has some excellent content. I would recommend that any of us who are looking to get into tech in a big way and want to know what to look for before we fully jump in, read this and take the time to reflect on it. It paints a pretty bleak picture that seems to me to be born out by the real dynamics that logic would dictate should exist, and that data are revealing may be occurring.
The article is at prudentbear.com
Here is an excerpt from the article:
<<Internet infrastructure stocks still sell at very high valuations, which is not what one would expect if we were genuinely at the trough of a bear market cycle. Given the collapse in their sales trend these valuations are unsupportable, despite the fact that many have already fallen sharply. Professional investors reflexively bid high tech stocks up in January. The public has experienced losses in high tech for the first time in more than a decade. They respond to price. If the price action of last week in the NASDAQ goes on much further, we would expect to see a scared public begin to sell their high priced Internet infrastructure stocks to the professionals (who presumably will persist in the mistaken belief that the Fed can still turn this mess around). But when that change in psychology finally turns the momentum game down, the professionals will be forced to sell. This next time down losses will be so deep the public will probably start to redeem its mutual funds. Once this begins, the process will feed on itself. Two or three hundred points on Fed funds won’t change this behaviour once investor psychology changes from apprehension to panic. >>
I know that we have heard the "wolf" cries before and that we have learned to ignore them. It was the right thing to do when the growth of the tech sector and the growth in the economy were positive. The question is whether it is the right thing to do now that there is downward momentum, energy problems, tech overcapacity, increased potential for political problems with China and in the middle east and signs of inflation.
I looked at JimP's list of reasons for investing in tech now, at least for an entry. Every one of them is an excellent basis for entering now. I think of these as shafts of sunlight filtering through a cloudy day. I think the factors that have concerned me more lately and those that are discussed in the article are the kinds of factors farther out. I think of this as looking past those shafts of sunlight on that cloudy day and seeing a storm building on the horizon. The storm may not come but the threat of it is there. I think that smart money sees that storm building and that they are now, or will soon, close the shutters and head indoors. (Who said econ and imagery couldn't mix?)
Put me in the "not yet" camp. Ed |
