What You'll See in Boston (Guest commentary by Lorie Byrd)
First thing, I would like to thank Crush Kerry for this opportunity to share my thoughts on the upcoming Democratic National Convention. The following is a look at what I expect to see at the convention, along with a list of political truths that I hope will make it easier for all to follow the proceedings.
In order for those of us who follow politics to keep our sanity, we must first accept several basic political facts of life: (1) perception is reality in politics, ( 2) performance is often judged in comparison to expectations, rather than comparison to performance of an opponent, and ( 3) timing is everything. If Republican, the following additional facts must be accepted to understand the way the system works: (4) Facts may be stubborn things, but they are not immutable. If a lie is repeated enough times it becomes the operable truth. This is the real legacy of the Clinton presidency -- Democrats learned that facts can be spun into an alternate reality that defies hard truths such as numbers and past quotes (but so far, DNA is still pretty hard to beat). (5) The mainstream media is neither fair, nor balanced, and although their days are numbered, they still have enormous power that Republicans must counter with outlets such as talk radio, Fox News, the internet and paid campaign advertising if they are to have any hope of having their message heard.
That being said, the following is how I believe those political truths apply to the upcoming Democratic Convention.
Perception is reality. The RNC has released a statement regarding the image the Democrats want to portray during the convention.
It will take an extreme makeover of John Kerry and the Democrat Party's rhetoric to make both presentable to Americans. For four days the Boston Convention will serve as the Democrat's great salon. Those who have been watching the Democrats over the last year may not recognize what emerges each day, but don't worry. We will be there to help, ready with the real record.
The RNC statement is somewhat reminiscent of the words of Ronald Reagan at the 1992 Republican Convention referring to the convention the Democrats had just held. I suspect the statement will prove to be just as applicable today.
They put on quite a production in New York a few weeks ago. You might even call it slick. A stone's throw from Broadway it was, and how appropriate. Over and over they told us they are not the party they were. They kept telling us with straight faces that they're for family values, they're for a strong America, they're for less intrusive government. And they call me an actor.
Some of the perceptions Democrats must hope viewers take away from the convention would have to be that the party is diverse and inclusive; that Kerry has great support among veterans; that Kerry is not a flip-flopper, but a thoughtful decision maker; that Kerry isn't really a liberal, but a mainstream centrist; and that Republicans are the nasty, negative ones who stole the last election.
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The Democrat convention website touts a NYT article "Almost Half Dem Delegates are Minorities". After counting the number of skin colors and ethnic-sounding names of the speakers, try counting the number of views allowed to be expressed. While ethnic diversity is encouraged, diversity of thought will not be tolerated. Will a pro-life Democrat be allowed to speak? When the Republican convention rolls around, viewers will see quite a few speakers who are pro-choice and pro-gay rights, but don't expect the media to see this as evidence of diversity. Instead there will be much media discussion of how the party is split by issues like abortion and gay marriage. (See truth #5 above.)
It is a tightly held secret, but I have it from a reliable authority that John Kerry served in Vietnam. Expect to see and hear a lot about all the veterans supporting John Kerry and many references to his "brothers-in-arms" . Don't expect to hear anything about the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth or the 19 out of 23 officers who served with Kerry who have signed a letter declaring him "unfit" to be commander-in-chief , or about the sailors pictured with Kerry who had to threaten to sue him to discontinue use of their likeness in his campaign. Also don't expect to see much about Kerry's anti-war protest days. It is likely that the pictures orchestrated at the convention will be successful in creating the illusion that many veterans and those in the military support Kerry. (See truths #4 and 5 above.)
If this item linked to prominently on the DNC website is any indication, also expect some snide references to Bush's National Guard service. Evidently, the Kerry-Edwards campaign isn't terribly concerned about alienating the thousands of members of the National Guard and their friends and family.
Don't expect to see a flip-flopping John Kerry. Instead his penchant for changing positions will be touted as the ability to see both sides of an issue. This ability will be praised as an antidote to Bush's obstinance. His thoughtful consideration of all points of view will be portrayed in contrast to Bush's cowboy brashness. I agree with Pat Hynes' argument that the Bush campaign spent too much time and money painting Kerry as a flip-flopper. Americans do "like waffles". Opinion polls show that the American public has, as Kerry did, flip-flopped on their own support for the war in Iraq.
The job for Republicans at their convention will be to explain how the leader of the post 9/11 world does not have the option of perpetual inaction and must be decisive. For a preview of how the party might handle the charge that Kerry is a flip-flopper, see John Edwards' response to Leslie Stahl's question in the recent 60 Minutes interview.
The Republicans have done everything in their power to portray Kerry as a serial flip-flopper on issues. How damaging has that been to his candidacy? ...When asked about this issue, Edwards defended his running mate. "No. 1, you've been president of the United States for four years. You've spent $80, 90, 100 million on television - almost all of it talking about your not-yet-nominated opponent? What does that say about your administration and its accomplishments," says Edwards. "Second, flip-flopper? You gotta be kidding me. I mean, a guy who put his life on the line for the men who served with him in Vietnam every day? Ask them what he's made of. Ask them what kind of backbone and courage he has."
So, it is Bush's fault and besides, a Vietnam war vet couldn't possibly be a flip-flopper.
Convincing voters that Kerry is not a liberal will be a tough sell, but the media will no doubt help him make it. Don't expect to see any labels of "extreme left wing" applied to John Kerry even though he did receive the ranking as most liberal senator by the National Journal. With all the "out of the mainstream" votes Kerry has made on partial birth abortion, taxes, the death penalty for terrorists, gun control and even his vote on the war (being only one of 12 senators to vote against it), don't expect to see much attention given to his long Senate career, but rather to the 4 months combat in Vietnam as proof that he is just a regular, mainstream kinda guy.
Any references to Kerry's wealth will be obscured by the refrains of "I was born in a small town" when multi-millionaire John Edwards enters the convention hall. To complete the picture the Democrat party would like viewers of the convention to take away with them, there will be much talk about the selected-not-elected, lying, AWOL, deserter, Halliburton/Enron loving, flight suit wearing, civilian murdering, "My Pet Goat" reading, needless war starting, water poisoning, tax cutter for the wealthiest one percent, homophobe, miserable failure, racist current President, too. But it will be presented in a very positive and uplifting way.
The Expectations Game. This is the key to Kerry's bounce. My blog mentor, Polipundit, has been arguing for quite some time that Kerry will perform well at the convention and will receive a significant bounce. I tend to agree, but believe that as much of this will be due to the low expectations most have of Kerry, as to the quality of his performance. He has been described by some of those who plan to vote for him as resembling Lurch from the Addam's Family, boring, lacking charisma, and as stiff and wooden as Al Gore was in his pre-insanity days. As noted in Polipundit's post, even though many of the criticisms of Kerry were also made of Al Gore, he still received a huge convention bounce. I would argue that as much of it was due to "the kiss" he planted on Tipper as his speech, but, hey, we don't know that Kerry and Edwards don't have a kiss of their own in the works. The way I see it, if Kerry can produce enough pink in his cheeks to convince people that he has a pulse, he will have greatly exceeded expectations.
The Timing. I find it interesting that the leak of the Sandy Berger document swiping investigation came just days before the 9/11 commission report. I also find it interesting that the 9/11 report is coming just before the commencement of the Democrat convention. Be sure to take notice of the stories that will be completely drowned out by the convention. I better not hold my breath waiting for the public apology from Tim Russert and Chris Matthews for all the time they gave to Wilson the Liar and Sandy the Burglar to savage Bush's foreign policy and national security positions over the past year. I suspect the timeliness of the convention story will push the Wilson and Berger revelations to the status of "old news." Also related to timeliness, a few things you shouldn't expect to see at the Democrat convention in addition to Joe Wilson and Sandy Berger: jobs reports for the past year or current pictures of any happy Iraqis. Whew. I guess there really will be a lot to watch for at the Democrats' convention, and I haven't even touched on the Clinton and Dean factors in the convention equation or the Ron Reagan speech. Continue to visit Crush Kerry.com and Polipundit.com to get additional analysis on the convention proceedings
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