Jim , to Mason: As emotion irradiates all memory( good or bad) and they can see what happened yesterday, and apply it to tomorrow. We still see new lows on COMP by end of month. EW( Prechter free week) is calling this a 5- 3-5 correction with this down moving being the 3 portion. the problem with that is that we haven't even had the first 5 yet, need to get over 2232 before closing under 1960 to get first 5. we will probably have that answer by the end of the week.
Lockerbee: We always maintained recession is for real in our posts despite Joe Schmuck being given impression otherwise by media & Fed. Yesterday Fed made it official by cutting 0.5% and keeping easing bias despite inflation risk showing Fed is scared and can do nothing about looming recession. (We always maintained , nothing can be done and Fed is not to blame. This is a global historical cycle and we have to go through it for growth in years ahead). Monthly 0.5%rate cuts holding the market so far , are for the first time in the year at least 42 days away on 27th June and will definitely not be 0.5% , if at all. Easing bias has been kept by Greenspan to keep hope alive that tax cut benefits will come in soon. Tuesday knee jerk on news did not last due absence of follow through and indices practically closed almost unchanged to sell-off on Tuesday as there was not ample time after the rate cut and market close to do tank the market. So we do what bulls call retracement and bears tanking on Wednesday. Wednesday of expiry week is reverse of Tuesday and we call Tuesday up-day. Bulls suggest that after 5 rate cuts markets always gained 4.5% to 50% in 12months. So maximum on May 15th 2002 Nasdaq will be 3120 and minimum 2169. But in between bulls conveniently forget are lows as well. which we think will be 907 minimum and 1400 maximum(Jim's EW count).
Nasdaq is below 10 dma and supported at 2020 (30dma) with 1998 as floor for the moment . Next 2 weeks Nasdaq will be range bound between 1847 & 2148. Results after close were a touch worse than usual bad. Now that immediate fear of Fed is gone earnings will impact as they used to . Days of bad news is good news and good is off course good are behind us. June is when real huge bad earings are going to hit when real tanking will be seen , for now we may even see recovery from 1998 , but NO rally. Nikki & FTSE drop show what is being thought of rate cuts , so do US futures. Three consecutive days volumes of 1.3, 1.4 ,1.69 bln on Nasdaq will be reversed today to 1.9-2.4 bln heavier volume drops making recovery efforts a wee bit more difficult. But AM sell-off is bound to provide some bounce in the PM. So I will be takin profits on half of my shorts today. (90% combined shorts on FTSE , Dow & Nasdaq). Nasdaq 2030-2010 maybe the place to do..
For Wednesday Nasdaq supports are 2050/2020/1998 resi 2077/2087 . Dow support 10816 , 10740 , 10700/10624 , res 10859 , S&P supports 1238/1223/1207
Rick: Without a doubt a down day Wednesday. The sell off afternoon was unbelievable. Not good at all. Looks like we WILL revisit 1600 before June. It was so obvious that greenspan is panicking now, too aggressive. He thinks he can save the semi's and storage??? No way. The days are over. Ask Cisco.
wolf : The market will be left to its own devices for a long month. No earnings, no rate-cuts, no fundamentals, more lay-offs, more statements putting upturn into 2002, inflation talk, prospect of smaller rate-cuts (if any), etcetera, etcetera, etcetera..
rajys: Nasdaq closed lower than at rate cut announcement. New lower lows test ahead forecast , what can this rate cut do what other 4 didn't ?
hkp: rajys ! when you see grandma , she'll look like AG
pammylee : One thing to keep in mind. Jim. I Just corrected some calculations have 2052 as my target for the end of this C on the 60 naz. Only problem I can't solve is it appears to be an irregular flat from the 4/20 high. If so, then the target should be lower. Any thoughts? I made reference to the 60 minute Naz. I have 2060, 2030 as first targets. Jim. No. My count is: A Wave (2232-2089 on 5/4) B Wave (2089-2214 on 5/7) and C Wave starting there. Wave a = 204 pts. and B = 234 pts ( Wave A X 1.15, which makes it an irregular). I'm not sure if this fits correctly.
Jim : You're counting from 1620 low & not 2232 high. If you are looking at an irregular flat, count how many points over the end of wave 3 your b of 4 is, and subtract that from the a of 4 low to give a target. Assuming you're counting down from 2232 , we see this as a 3 wave extending, because what you are calling a wave 4 is overlapping wave 1( the approx. 2090 gap down low 2 Fridays ago). so you are better off calling this a 3rd down extension, or a 3 wave that is about to end, but the daily says down so the better count would be the 3rd(wave) extension down.
eufinancial.com |
