George is a theorist. Today, TERN and his followers are getting a dose of reality.
As I see it, the upgrades of many an MSO plant are simply not going to be as quick as they originally thought they were gonna be. T is obviously not alone in their efforts. It is becoming increasingly apparent in the more competitive markets that local franchising authorities are going to take a more aggressive role in license renewal, granting ROW easements, and scheduling and coordination of all the street digging necessary to lay new fiber, not only among MSOs, but also among newly competing overbuilders as well as telcos so that traffic disruptions are kept to a minimum. This results in delayed deployments irrespective of vendor supply problems.
Granted, TERN's biggest clients, Rogers and Shaw, likely didn't have to experience these problems in Canada, particularly in sparsely populated areas such vast systems. Moreover Rogers and Shaw essentially still operate as government chartered monopolies. In contrast, here in the States a more competitive industry is evolving.
Case in point. Remember that TERN-ADLAC announcement regarding the deployment of TERN's TeraJet modems in Los Angeles? See biz.yahoo.com
Are these modems deployed? No, as predicted. In fact, Adelphia offers no cable modem service in Los Angeles to date, and most likely will not do so in 2001. They are having enough trouble rolling out a very lame digital service, and of course, are behind schedule. As I see things, they've just about given up on cable modem service in Los Angeles.
Again, reality vs. theory. |
