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Technology Stocks : Progress Software
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To: mwj6 who wrote (231)12/3/1998 7:35:00 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh   of 296
 
March 97 only looks like a trend because of a more serious than usual dip that dates back to that period, a dip when they stumbled in what had been a long pattern of 20-30% annual growth and actually showed the odd bit of red ink. Go back farther and you will see that it is the dip that is the anomaly and the recovery from the dip less interesting as a result. Then, take a look at the volumes behind a lot of the movement -- Most of the time it looks like there is two grannie investment clubs trading holdings to account for the whole day's trading.

They've had a couple or three goodish quarters in a row and there has been some response in the price, but what do you think the future will bring? You might get some more of this same kind of growth for a while anyway, but couldn't you find a lot of other companies that were a more sure bet? And, what happens as time goes on? Unless they suddenly break out and get exciting technology-wize, they are going to be dependent in large part on the growth of revenue from the VAR channel. I think this last year has been good to them this way because the partners sell package solutions which have been doing well with companies who would rather buy new applications than fix old ones for Y2K. Is this going to keep growing? Or divert to more component-based development where Progress' proprietary technology makes it less attractive? And will its VARs all stick around? Already we have seen QADI pick Forte over Progress for new development on On/Q and that's Progress' biggest VAR.
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