Internet access IS a commodity service. Thousands of mom-n-pop ISP's are going to get squeezed by the AT&T,RBOC's and cable company collision over the next several years. Bundled offerings from the behemoths will make access apparently free.
So, we sign up. We have our bundle. We have the "free" access. Now where to? Surfing for relevant info and entertainment, right? Quality spots like this. Maybe the Motley Fool. Some sites will be trying to survive as independents, with only advertising support and free access. Others will try for a few cyber-pennies from each visitor. And others will do the flat rate subscription with advertising as additional support. Which model will dominate? I don't know. I do know AOL has a lead in market share, and that lead is theirs to blow. I do not expect the cable operators and RBOC's to suddenly develop a taste and talent for creating fresh and engaging content, so they will be looking for links and strategic partners that they can weave into their commodity offerings. I think AOL has as good a chance as any content service to be the link of choice from all the behemoth ISP providers. And the traffic will flow, and the advertising $ will follow. All the negatives being said about AOL apply to the mom-n-pops in spades. If the price of basic access is going down to near $zero ( or negative? ") then an ISP had better get some advertising or other revenue source or it will dry up and die.
If the subscription model is doomed, then the advertising supported model may be the survivor. Network TV is the appropriate analogy, I think. Lowest common demoninator prevails. Biggest number of eyeballs wins. Advertisers become stickier about who they spend their ad dollars with and demand auditable results. Bigs deal with bigs. Extend out the scenario and maybe you get AT&T, RBOC's and Telecommunications and Time Warner on the one side and the Microsoft Network and AOL on the other. Maybe a ZDNet and a Yahoo. Can AOL compete with this crowd? Definitely. Can ANYBODY make any money at this game? Yet to be determined. Is AOL "doomed". Hardly.
And yes, I have an ISP AND an AOL account. Will drop the ISP if AOL gets their capped monthly cost down to $35 bucks or less. Incidentally, anybody seen the proposed pricing fo @HOME, the Cable GIGA-hose access service. It's about $39.95 a month, I think, ON TOP of your existing cable bill.
Good luck to all. Flame away if you must...
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