ATTRITION: Surge in Volunteers Replacing US Army Losses
Strategy Page
May 7, 2004: <font size=4>The U.S. Army, which is taking the bulk of the casualties in Iraq, is still getting more volunteers than it needs. Standards have remained high, but the numbers needed have gone up as well. With over 6,000 casualties in Iraq during the last year, the number of new troops needed this year has been increased from 72,000 to 77,000. Most of the wounded troops return to duty, but all are out of action for days, or months, or forever in the case of the dead and crippled. This is all uncharted territory for the army, as it has been over 150 years since it was in a long war with an all-volunteer force.
The army has about eleven percent of its total (active and reserve) strength in Iraq, and the casualties are, in a historical first, disproportionately non-combat troops. This means that those joining the army can’t guarantee they will stay away from combat by enlisting for a non-combat job. If you go to Iraq or Afghanistan, you are going to be shot at. Army basic training has been made longer, and more combat oriented as a result.
Anyone going to Iraq has a 4-5 percent chance of getting hurt. But so far that has not caused a decline in volunteers, despite media reports recruiting would suffer. There may yet be a decline in volunteers, and the army is paying close attention to recruiting efforts in order to detect any problems early, so they can try and counter them.
One thing the army has noted is the increasing number of
volunteers who are joining up not for the educational
benefits or the money. Now a major incentive is
patriotism. Many young Americans believe that Islamic
radicals are a real threat to the United States and want
to do something about it. But in past wars, this sort of
enthusiasm diminished as the war went on. Historically,
after three years, the number of volunteers declined
dramatically. But in those past wars, mainly the Civil War
and World War II, the casualties were high. This is not
the case in Iraq, a war with historically very low
casualties. No one knows what impact all this will have.
There are still enough troops coming back dead or maimed
to remind potential volunteers that this is a dangerous
business. But since there is no precedent for a situation
like this, the army can only watch, and wait. |
