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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 297.52-6.6%Feb 4 3:59 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23342)8/26/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Brian: Re:"BTW, I hear many Bears say they want to wait for a rosier picture before commiting to the long side, at which point, it will already be reflected in the stock. Most of the Bears think they can have the former w/o the latter being true."

Good point. If you look at the price of AMAT during 1996, the best time to buy was in early September 1996 under a risk/reward basis when total equipment orders were still in decline as measured by SEMI. The turn was speculated correctly by the market before orders were actually reported by SEMI as improving. The first time one would have seen a turn as reported by SEMI would have been with the reporting of the October BTB in November 1996. But by then AMAT was trading steadily up from $11.50 in September to about $16.00. Your insurance premium would have been 40% off the September low. If you had waited to after the AMAT cc on November, your premium would have been over 50% off the September low. Yes, I realize I am talking off the September lows and nobody ever completely gets the low. I am trying to illustrate a point here. And, of course, one must correctly speculate as to when the turn will occur. Or one can establish a position on weakness.
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