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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: kc who wrote (23350)8/3/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: Bearded One  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
I own the stock and am trying to convince some real investors (100k share type people) to purchase it. The sticking point is, of course, Microsoft. They accept my statements (and the IBD article certainly helps) that Novell will have a product out early that is better than Microsoft. But they need harder evidence of sales. Another theory which I pitched to them is that Microsoft may at some point openly adopt Netware. I don't mean that Microsoft will give up on NT 5, but that they will somehow adopt the two to work together. I don't really believe this is what Microsoft will do because of their corporate ego, but there *is* a chance of it, especially if you accept my take on NT 5.
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My Take on NT 5 vs Netware 5:

Number of new lines of code in NT 5: 30+ million.
Number of new lines of code in Netware 5: 2 million.

I estimate that NT 5 started in earnest not earlier than the beginning of 1996. For them to get it in before the year 2000 means that they have to write and debug 7.5 million lines of code a year. I don't have it in front of me but I recall that Excel is not more than 3 million lines of code. So that's a couple of Microsoft Excels a year for four years.

My guess for NT 5: No usable version before 2001. And that will be a version missing some of the functionality in the current Beta.
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