A to Z Junior Mining Research Site Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site

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To: 4figureau who wrote (2332)	12/30/2002 11:24:41 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	of 5423

Sinclair's view on silver the following is my view of silver: I do not believe that silver is in a Bull Market at the present time. Rather, I see silver fueled positively within a sideways movement by the Bull market in gold. Silver may well develop into a Bull market but there are fundamental arguments against that development. That argument is the undeniable industrial ingredient in the demand equation for silver. Many point to the apparent concentrated statistical short position in silver. I truly believe those that have taken this item (the supposed silver short) as their main reason for believing that silver will go the extreme prices in the main do not know how to read the figures they are looking at. As far as a concentration of the short position, there is nothing new in that. One should research past years on this concentration to see that it has been so since I was a member of the Comex Amongst the same general entities. The size of the short is, in my opinion, skewed by an industry wide misuse of the commercial hedger margin provisions of the exchange. I have attached two charts to this discussion for your review. The first is a simple long-term chart with a possible bullish falling wedge, yet to be resolved. The second is a Williams's %R indicator, which has proven a real moneymaker in silver, if adhered to with discipline. You can see two technical realities in the attachment. 1/ Silver is not yet in a Bull market. 2/ Willaims's %R is the primary indicator so far to make money in silver without significant risk. Conclusion: Until silver closes above $4.85, I am neutral on it. When silver closes above $4.85, you should change indicators from Williams's %R to MACD & Momentum and be long. Silver on a close over $4.85 will achieve $5.50 promptly if not immediately. I believe this will occur but will let silver lead me and not tell silver what is has to do. *Click on the following link to view full editorial including associated charts: tanrange.com

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