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A Moment of Optimism
Power Line
We've acknowledged a lot of bad news for Republican candidates this election cycle, so it won't hurt to take a moment to pass on some (possible) good news. Ken Mehlman wrote today that, contrary to popular assumption, voter intensity among Republicans is at least as high as among Democrats:
<<< In recent days and weeks, the mainstream media have repeatedly claimed that the Republican base is suffering from "low voter enthusiasm." It is easy to believe a story that is repeated so frequently, but in fact there is ample evidence to the contrary. By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed.
First, numerous polls clearly indicate near parity in intensity between Democrats and Republicans. Three recent national surveys-Gallup, Cook/RT Strategies, and our most recent RNC survey conducted by Voter/Consumer Research-all show partisan interest is approximately equal. >>>
In fact, the RNC's own polling shows Republican intensity slightly greater, on the average, than Democratic. Why is this so important? November's election is all about turnout. There are plenty of Republicans and conservatives to keep the House and Senate in Republican hands, if they vote. Most if not all of the polls report numbers that are weighted according to assumptions about how many voters from each party (and independents) will show up. So when you see that a Republican candidate is behind, that generally means that he or she is behind if a considerable number of Republicans are too dispirited to show up. If that assumption is false, then we have little idea how next month's election will turn out. One thing we do know is that the Republicans have better mechanisms in place to identify motivated voters and get them to the polls than the Democrats. So if the two parties' voters are, in fact, equally energized, then Republican candidates may do materially better than current poll numbers suggest.
Another cause for (relative) optimism: while everyone's focus has been on how many seats the Republicans may lose in the House, there are also seats that the Democrats may forfeit. John McIntyire of RealClearPolitics points to several Democratic seats that could change hands:
<<< [T]here is a basket of five seats Republicans are looking at for possible pickups (IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, VT-AL, and IA-3) and the odds would suggest that the GOP may be able to pick up one of these five. The two seats in Georgia, helped by a strong Sonny Perdue at the top of the ticket, are generally thought to offer Republicans their best hope for a pickup. >>>
Finally, I turn the floor over to Dan Riehl, who thinks the Republicans are resurgent. I didn't take the time to reproduce Dan's links; check out the original for more:
<<< Are The Dems Blowing It?
They're blowing it. If you track blogs and the MSM, blogs often run a week or so ahead of MSM themes. Here's what we have.
With the election over two weeks away, the Dems have started squabbling over an election they might not ever get to have.
>>>Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's prospects for becoming the nation's first female House speaker depend not only on a Democratic victory in November but also on her ability to prevent any Democrats from voting against her -- primarily centrists opposed to her liberal stances.<<<
Is this really the time to be talking up Steny Hoyer as an alternative, given his slavish tendencies?
And another election two years down the road shouldn't be in the headlines right now.
>>>Elizabeth Edwards, wife of White House hopeful John Edwards, says her choices in life have made her happier than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton _ a possible Edwards' rival for the Democratic nomination.<<<
Today, Rep. Harold Ford in Tennessee may well have done himself in as regards the Senate race. Go to the video - it isn't good. And while possibly an outlier, the latest from Zogby has him down by 7, which fits more with the desperation tactics he's using, confronting Corker and coming out for Lieberman, which he didn't need to do unless he isn't making it with moderates and conservatives in TN.
While not D versus R, it could be a portent of things to come as the Lamont campaign is going from hysterics to crashing to the ground 17 points down. Matt Stoller assures the faithful Lieberman's support is soft (eye-roll) ... but Joe isn't the one who needs a cushion right about now. ***
Look for BushCo. to make a major announcement of a tactical shift in Iraq which will give marginal doubters at least enough hope to bite their lip and hold their nose when they vote. ***
Sherrod Brown has a back tax issue, would be Senate Leader Harry "sand lot" Reid has the land. But there are two weeks to go until the election and the Dems are further away from having a house in Congress than they were last week. The Senate may already have slipped away and I still say Santorum isn't going out without some kind of late major play against Casey - and he is closing, at that.
This isn't the direction the Dems or the media thought things would be going just now. And that is going to make news in the days ahead. Elections always close and it always makes news. The Dems have made the mistake of getting too far out of the gate too early in every recent election and ultimately, they've lost.
This is now showing the early signs of a repeat. >>>
Hope springs eternal. Sometimes, of course, the hopeful turn out to be right.
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