Extracted CRME part of Barron's online story. Whole thing on
Valuation thread. Current CRME Mkt Cap is $0.5B. If peak
Kynapid earnings really do hit $1.4B, a mkt cap of $7B seems
reasonable even without considering oral vernakalant. That's
more than a 10 bagger from today's price! I could wait for
that. <G>
Pills That Could Thrill in 2008
By JOHANNA BENNETT
THE HEYDAY OF BLOCKBUSTER DRUG discoveries may be over, but
drug makers still have breakthroughs in store in the next
year, or so.
To be sure, the drug industry is less productive than a decade
ago. In 2007, drug companies launched 18 new drugs, the fewest
since 1983, according to the market research firm IMS Health.
And this year, regulators could approve 24 to 29 compounds,
almost half the number approved in 1997.
Still, there are bright spots.
Experts helped Barron's Online identify five drugs expected to
hit the market in 2008. All the drugs would improve treatment
of serious medical conditions and eventually pay off.
The list includes ... Cardiome Pharma's heart drug, Kynapid.
...
Here's a rundown on the drugs and their top-line potential for
the drug companies that are developing them.
Kynapid
Cardiome's Kynapid (also known as vernakalant hydrochloride)
could be the first drug on our list approved by the FDA.
In fact, if the intravenous medication receives FDA approval by
Jan. 19, it could be the first new drug for atrial
fibrillation since 2000.
Atrial fibrillation strikes 2.5 million Americans, and is
caused when the heart's upper chambers beat too quickly.
The heart irregularity causes blood clots, chest pains and
palpitations, and is considered a leading cause of stroke.
Blood thinners prevent that. Drugs called beta blockers can
slow the heartbeat. And surgery is sometimes an option.
An oral version is being studied. Meanwhile, annual sales could hit $1.4 billion by 2015.
"The oral drug is a clear blockbuster," says Mike King, an
analyst with Rodman & Renshaw, an investment bank.
...
Five Drugs to Watch
Drug Company What It Treats Likely FDA Approval Future Yearly Sales*
Cordaptive Merck Cholesterol 1st Half '08 $1.5 billion
Kynapid Cardiome Atrial fibrillation 1Q '08 $1.4 billion
Actemra Roche Rheumatoid arthritis 2Q '08 $1 billion
sugammadex** Schering-Plough Anesthesia 2Q '08 Over $1 billion
methylnaltrexone** Progenics Prevents side effects from using morphine 1Q '08 $1 billion
Sources: Decision Resources, Lehman Brothers, Leerink Swann & Co. and Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
*Estimate for methylnaltrexone reflects sales by 2012. Estimates for Cordaptive, Actemra, Kynapid and sugammadex show sales by 2015.
** Drugs don't have brand names yet.
Full Disclosure
• Rodman & Renshaw has a Market Outperform rating on Cardiome Pharma.
...
• Lehman Brothers has an Equal Weight rating on Cardiome Pharma. |
