**OT**
Year 2000 bug sparks panic
The Year 2000 computer bug will cause massive earthquakes,
worldwide hoarding of breakfast cereals and the more rapid aging of
the Rolling Stones.
OK, maybe not the earthquakes.
Really, the claims about the dangers of the Year 2000 problem - the
stupidest disaster mankind has ever created for itself - are blowing
through the roof. This week brought another level.
Sen. Robert Bennett, a reasonable Utah
Republican with a business background,
introduced a bill that would force companies to
disclose their Year 2000 bug exposure. While
unveiling the bill, Bennett - citing figures from
high-profile economist Ed Yardeni - said there's
a 40% chance the bug will cause a worldwide
recession.
This is a different tack. The recent scare tactics
about the bug have involved dollar figures or
inconveniences. Fixing the bug is going to cost companies and
governments as much as $600 billion, some estimates say. Sounds bad,
but huge generalized numbers like that mean nothin' to nobody.
As for inconveniences, we're being told the bug will trap us in elevators
at midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, mess up our credit card bills and cause
Microsoft Barney to short-circuit. Yet few people are paying attention.
So here's Bennett's argument: The Year 2000 bug could have the same
effect as the oil crisis of the early 1970s.
No, that doesn't mean you'll sit in block-long lines at gas stations and
trade your Ford Gran Torino for a Mazda GLC.
In the 1970s, the world's economies ran on oil, Bennett says. When the
flow of oil was interrupted by the Arab oil states, a recession hit.
"We are in the same kind of situation here," Bennett says. "The Year
2000 problem is coming. Everybody knows it and nobody wants to
focus on it. Well, the world runs on information now. Financial
information, the transfer of money, inventory figures, shipping dates - all
that kind of information is absolutely vital to the world of commerce. If
that is interrupted, even temporarily, there will be repercussions
throughout the economy that can be as serious as the interruption of the
flow of oil in the 1970s."
Now, this is all the result of a software glitch that seems silly at best. In
the early days of computers, memory was expensive and space was
limited. As one way to save space, programmers writing complex
software would use only two digits to represent a year. So 1963 would
be 63. Even as computers became cheaper, programmers for years still
used two-digit years.
So, as you can imagine, 2000 - or 00 - causes a problem. Computers
will think it's 1900. They'll either churn out nonsense or fry their circuits.
Seems like it should be simple to fix, and it is - once you find all the
places where you have to fix it. One analogy is that it's like knowing
that you have to fix a rivet on the Golden Gate Bridge, but first you
have to find which rivet is broken. Software can have millions of lines of
code. Software from one computer interacts with other computers in a
company or across networks, so all computers have to be fixed or the
00s will spread again like a virus.
There is no quick way to fix the bug and none are likely to come
around, experts say. Software specialists have to get in and crawl
through every bit of code.
And if it's not fixed, lots of bad things could indeed happen. Bennett
gives one example: Nuclear power plants are totally dependent on
computers and they've all got the bug. If the bug brings down a plant,
the nation's power grid will try to compensate for the power shortage,
potentially causing regional blackouts.
One reason the public isn't too alarmed is that people figure that
companies will never let this get out of hand. Surely executives will
make sure the problem is fixed long before 2000.
But maybe not.
A recent survey by Cap Gemini, a computer consulting firm, found that
only one in six Fortune 500 companies "has implemented a full-fledged
plan for Year 2000 compliance." Another survey, by research firm
Gartner Group, found that 40% of companies "have not progressed
beyond the initial awareness and assessment phases of the crisis."
Bennett's bill would force companies to detail their Year 2000 troubles
so shareholders would know how much a company has to spend or
how badly its business could be damaged if the bug isn't fixed in time.
That should force executives to face reality and do something, he says.
Maybe it's a bit overboard. Analysts don't give it much chance of
passing. But at least he's throwing some logs on the fire. Nobody really
knows what will happen if 2000 rolls around and the bug kicks in. But
who wants to find out?
"If they end up saying, 'What an alarmist Bennett was,'" the senator
says, "that'll be just fine."
By Kevin Maney, USA TODAY
Guess what? I know a company that is selling yr2000 software to insurance companies! I started a thread for this small cap....
Subject 18064
Jeff |
