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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (2365)10/16/1997 9:17:00 PM
From: Scott D McKnight   of 6136
 
In b) you state..."for the other population should be exponentially distributed. This means that a patient's probability of NOT failing treatment during a given N-week period remains constant,and is of the form p=exp(-rN) --- we don't know what r is, but my assumptions say it is proportional to the viral load."

Don't you mean that the probability of NOT failing treatment AFTER
a given N-week period is S(N)=exp(-rN)? ... assuming an exponential
density. The hazard is then a constant r. I'm not sure that i buy into the assumption of the memory-less exponential distribution; it seems you acknowledge that previous surviorship does influence future survivorship. I might consider using a proportional hazards model. I would be interested in how AIDS survival is modeled.

sm
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