brian, november corresponds to december eps just like august corresponds to september eps.
here's the chart of what happened in august...
209.31.31.89
now, the logical conclusion is that everyone wised up pretty close to 8/11. why? we read in an article that mu guided analysts down. it was kind of an off handed comment in the article. perhaps someone has the link to the post or the article.
i believe the analysts downgraded after mu guided them down. since the downgrades occurred on mon/8/13/97, i'm inferring that both mondays-wednesdays and the 11th-13th days, of the month prior to earnings, are important days for mu. however, i don't know which one takes precedent.
perhaps mu likes backstabbing their loyal investors on certain days of the week or on certain days of the month preceding earnings. this monday is the 10th. it corresponds pretty close. i would not be surprised to see some downgrades next week and a similar looking chart to mid august on a % basis - not a dollar basis.
in any case, mu is dead meat before january. they are currently losing money, although they may post marginal eps this q b/c the beginning of the q was not nearly as bad as it is now.
i have mu boxed. either mu goes down now in november - just like it did in august (the reality/perception disconnect is even more serious now than it was then - mu is trading at a much higher multiple than intel) or it falls in december after they announce pathetic earnings - if not a loss for the q. the low teens are required to give mu a pe similar to intels on a going forward basis. a $0.30 disappointment this q will give hurlcrap the opportunity to lower his next q and next q eps estimates to a really low number and play on peoples fear and ignorance the same way he played on their greed and ignorance. then he'll be buying REAL, REAL LOW... :-)
my dec puts allow me to profit now and, if they don't work out, i'll buy some jans to ensure that i'm makin' bacon when mu disappoints very badly.
i think mu goes down in november as slimy dogs rarely learn new tricks. |
