Re: ["Recent Developments"]
>>Would be nice to hear Walts opinion regarding these recent developments?
>>In your experience, is this something to be concerned about?
>>Mr. Deemer. Are you out there sir?
Yep, Eric, I'm still out here; I was goofing off on Marco Island for a few days...
The "recent developments" you cited, if I read correctly, were more to do with WSTL, and their "three pending contract announcements", than with AMTX. I don't follow WSTL very closely, but it seems that they're just trying to keep investors up-to-date on pending future developments, which (as long as they're all true) isn't really "fishy" but just good PR. And as far as the recent analysts' comments re WSTL; well, I'd term the comments more careless (at least in some parts) than "fishy".
What does impress me, though, is the market's recent rediscovery of smaller stocks, which I commented on after I came back from a business trip a month ago (and as many others have mentioned as well):
techstocks.com
Amati and Westell are clearly leading the xDSL group in the resurgence (PAIR is more a snapback than anything else), so the wind is once again at our backs. I think, though, the intriguing thing in all this is the speculation on a forthcoming secondary: IF there is one, and IF Salomon is lead underwriter, and IF AMTX management makes as good a presentation on their road show as we all think they can, you might just get a LOT more institutional players involved in the stock. Note, for example, how much better AMTX has been acting since it got the SoundView coverage at the end of July (the BCTel contract, of course, hasn't hurt -- but that's what gave the analysts the excuse to finally climb down off the fence and get on the horse). In fact, re the secondary, it would be even better for AMTX longer-term, IMO, if they got one of the big tech brokerages like Robbie Stephens, H&Q et al, to go along with Solly as co-lead underwriter of the secondary; more sponsorship and exposure that way.
I guess the only fly in the ointment here (other than the fact that Ray's favorite Sto oscillator is overbought) is that the market has come a VERY long way in a relatively short time, and transitions from big-cap to small-cap leadership are usually not quite as smooth as this. A market "correction", if and when there is one, would probably not leave small stocks untouched (although if the leadership change is as valid as I think it is the small stocks'll get hit late and then be the first to rally back to new highs on "the other side".) But, what the hey; AMTX doesn't have very much correlation with the market anyway...
Just my take...
-- Walt Deemer |
