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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 211.76-4.2%12:26 PM EST

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To: colin1497 who wrote (237419)7/27/2007 1:10:22 PM
From: Sarmad Y. HermizRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
>> They will bury AMD, but they will never be what people betting on #2 dream that they can be.

This is the prevailing view about INTC from institutions. That's how inst ownership %-age of INTC persists under 60%.

My bet is the view will change to Intel's benefit. The main driver of the change is the very bad condition of AMD's finances (caused by the bad condition of its process technology).

1) Barc is simply not suitable for 65 nm process. It's too big. AMD needs to move it to 45 nm. If 45 nm is pushed out to '09, this means two more years of losses.

2) Brisbane cannot bin high performance (high $$) parts.

3) combination of 1 & 2 means AMD cannot raise much money from stock sale. Means they can't expand capacity or compete in high end. It also means the 30% dream may come about, but it will all be in the low end segment only. Meaning, Intel will be able to set reasonable margins for the mid and high end, where all the profit is.

At this time the only shadow on INTC doubling within a couple years is the prospect of negative government action such as the EU complaint.
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