If past experience is any indication of future results and as much as I genuinely despise all these so called charlatans calling themselves analysts, you want to sell and be out of the sector on the first downgrade from one of them who was lucky the last time around when he made the call, and buy when the first upgrade comes from a similar analyst who was lucky the last time around when he was lucky to make the call.
Johnatahn Joseph is sort of like Tom Kurlak of the 90's now, as he was the first to downgrade the sector last July when semis were almost at their peak, and he upgraded the sector when semis were almost at their lowest points today.
As for Dan Niles, I do happen to agree with him about the business conditions and his view of the semis, nevertheless, and like I said the only logical statement that can be made about the market is the fact that it behaves in anabsolutely illogical manner!
I also came across the following that I thought would be of interest (at least from an entertainment point of view):This from Jim Cramer of Realmoney.com:
Remember the short-sellers! Remember that they need stock to be sold to make their dreams come true. But what if no one sells? What if people say, "Motorola (MOT:NYSE - news - boards) is dead, but so what?" What if they say, "EMC (EMC:NYSE - news - boards) is bad, but not that bad." What if buyers say, "You know, I like Jon Joseph's call, so I will hold on to my semiconductors?" What if people say, "You know, Bush really showed me something, and I want to be long with this guy?." What if the only selling was for income taxes, and now they are paid?
I will tell you what happens. The shorts panic. They cover. And we get our first back-to-back rally of the year that might actually be lasting. We break that negative psychology which says, "Why buy now, when there will be lower prices tomorrow?" As a veteran short-seller I can tell you that my worst nightmare was a lack of supply, that no one would take action on bad news because the owners don't care to sell any more and buyers have been looking to get in with $2 trillion in cash. I used to rail around the office on days like today saying, "Where are those I!@#$#! sellers? What the !@#$%! are they thinking? Why don't they sell?" And if they listened, I made money. Often, though, they didn't. I don't think they will listen today. |
