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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Scott D McKnight who wrote (2372)10/17/1997 9:14:00 AM
From: Peter Silsbee   of 6136
 
Don't you mean that the probability of NOT failing treatment AFTER a given N-week period is S(N)=exp(-rN)?

Well, sort of. I meant "probability of not failing DURING the N-week period, conditioned on not having failed by the beginning of that period."

I'm not sure that i buy into the assumption of the memory-less exponential distribution; it seems you acknowledge that previous surviorship does influence future survivorship.

First, the model only says it's memoryless IF the viral load stays constant. If the viral load drops over time, your "hazard rate" drops proportionally. Second, if, as Henry asserts, there is likely to be a small population of resistant virus even at N=0, then that population may well be increasing, offsetting (or more than offsetting) this effect. Actually, the presence of resistant virus could pretty well destroy this model, since treatment failure would not depend on the occurrence of mutations.

Thanks for your comments.

PLS
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