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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2379)	3/24/2002 1:20:49 AM
From: Gottfried	of 95572

Cary, I hear you >Since shipments have been declining each month for a while, the billing decline has been slowed by the lag and the result is that billings reflect shipments a few months ago which were higher than current shipments.< and you've convinced me RtS is right about btb being lower now than it would have been without the new revenue recognition method. The opposite will be true after shipments have risen for a few months: recognized revenue will be held lower because of previous months lower shipments - so btb will be higher longer. Very confusing to me. A few months from now it should be a moot point, though, because we will no longer compare to pre-change periods. I'm not so sure that analysts don't realize the upturn will be slow. It seems I see that sentiment everywhere. To me it's at least equally likely they're now under-estimating it. But I do not really know. Gottfried

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