Sorry, Bill and Randy, I don't think this downdraft is specific to Agouron. Most stocks aren't responding to good news, it might the barrage of stories regarding the 10 year anniversary of the crash, Alan Greenspan's comments, the negative hypsters on this thread who can't refrain from their repetitive discussion of 100 % failure of protease inhibitors in 20 to 40 years. I am also sick and tired of hearing about this and the crash of 87.
It is not surprising that most of those involved in this thread from the beginning have left. It was a pleasure to read those posts then. Enlightening, intelligent, informative, relevant.
I think there is some truth to Larry Liebman's post #2351, addressed to those who require "immediate gratification" who expect the stock to appreciate daily.
There is no evidence that the protease inhibitors fail when taken as recommended, in triple combination, and if started early. 80% of patients show undetectable levels after 1 year for Viracept, 75% for crixivan for 2 years. A lot of lives have been saved. It is the best treatment available now, and there will not be any thing new for a few years.
Merck is a fine company. Their patents expire in 3-5 years. So what. That's Wall Street.
We all know they will have replacements by then, and Agouron will have new drugs in the pipeline by then too.
What about the importance of sales to the price of the stock. If you have access to Value Line, for example, look up the relationship between market cap and sales, or Sales per share divided by price per share. (Called the PSR or price to sales ratio.) Amgen has been at 7 or 8 for years. Chiron is at 3-4. Merck has been at 5-6. Agouron is at 4.6.
On this basis, Agouron is a good value. (Thanks John M.) Agouron is spending the difference between revs and earnings on research, building a sales force, developing manufacturing capability, and clinical trials of new products. (With a small amount for royalties to JT and taxes to US.)
Actually thestreet has an article about Merck today and gives the reasons for their shortfall. They mention competition from Warner Lambert's Lipitor, AND they mention competition from Agouron's Viracept. Sales of Crixivan were 133 million this quarter.
Agouron is gaining ground, at almost 80 this quarter, and growing.
There is only good news about Viracept. It's market share is increasing. Studies are showing it is at least as effective as Crixivan blah blah blah. We know all this.
It is the negative spin given by certain individuals here, on thestreet, and general market conditions. This will pass, probably as soon as options expire. |
