JFD, You and I (along with Johnd and Brian Malloy)got into the CBS Marketwatch story on MSFT. Check it out. cbs.marketwatch.com
All Aboard!
Microsoft on the move?
Plus: Chat about Dell, Yahoo and CMGI
By Jeff Clabaugh
Last Update: 1:34 PM ET Jun 8, 1999 NewsWatch
With Microsoft (MSFT: news, msgs) attorneys tanned and rested and back in court in Washington, and with Office 2000 now on the street and with a big investment in a CMGI (CMGI: news, msgs) division, Microsoft should be catching investor attention again. But is it? The stock's modest Monday move up had SiliconInvestor posters wondering where the enthusiasm is hiding. Said John F. Dowd: ..."It seems like the big money is unconvinced as the volume was again about 50 percent of average, and it closed up only 11/16. This surprises me in light of the fact that they have already sold 15 million copies (of Office 2000)." Impressive enough in itself, that others think Microsoft's stock price is hardly representative of the company's performance. Added johnd: ..."Microsoft confirms that 15 million Office 2000 already sold. There is still 4 weeks left in the quarter. This number will increase to some 20 to 25 million. WOW! That is all I want to say. I continue to believe 81 on Microsoft is cheeeeap!" And from tech2000: ..."I think a lot of momentum investors are still hoping for better opportunities to buy the stock. They are probably hoping these opportunities will be created by economic news, Greenspan or the trial. If the stock does not come down into the 70s again, watch them jump on board anyway, afraid of missing the earnings train. At least for now there still appears to be some time and no urgency." The so-called bombshell testimony from an IBM ( IBM: news, msgs) executive backing with some government charges against Microsoft in the Justice Department trial had some on the Microsoft board seeing hypocrisy in IBM's claims. Brian Malloy: ..."IBM's a joke. One week they are king of the Internet the next millennium and every other company is a firefly to be squashed unless they buy from IBM, in which case they will not be squashed. The next week they are walking around like a beggar, lamenting 'Woe is me.' "
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CBS MarketWatch Columns
Updated:
6/8/99 1:58:22 PM ET
Dell Computer (DELL: news, msgs) made its usual appearance on the most actives list, this time at the top of the list and at the ClearStation message board, the recommendations favored a Dell return. From Hoodman: ..."I see no reason not to buy Dell. I hear everyone saying how they can't continue their growth rate, but I think they're all wrong. You can't keep Dell down for long, and it's surprising that it stayed down as long as it has. With the strength the company is showing compared to the rest of the industry, Dell is down further than it ever should have even thought of going." Radar: ..."Dell looks good for a bounce above 40 here. Panic sellers are out now. New investors are entering the stock. Dell's stock price is at historical lows from overreaction to old news. Dell is still well-managed and on track with their growth. Long-term holders should be buying carloads at this level." But Dell's a strong short play for some investors, too. Says leslittle: ..."Using today's low volume rally to short more. Have accumulated about half of the size a position I'm willing to short. Will wait to see if we can push higher. Would short the next half at 39 if we get there. If not, will probably be satisfied with what I have."
Eye on CMGI
Monday's Internet rally came as welcome news to CMGI holders after news that Microsoft and Dell bought stakes in NaviSite, CMGI's site-services provider. The 13 point gain for CMGI's stock (CMGI: news, msgs) has folks on SiliconInvestor bragging about the company. Gladman: ..."105 has strong support and TIMING is everything. Look at what we have cooking this week -- earnings on Thursday, PR partnership with Microsoft and Dell today. Internet sector making nice gains. The next few days will be interesting to say the least. Once investors digest the partnership with Microsoft and Dell, I look for a ... strong run up. What great timing just prior to earnings. " AugustWest: ..."Not much standing in the way of this thing today. Running hard and fast through with few breathers. Damn, I hope we have staying power for awhile now." CMGI's Monday jump has some thinking the Mother of all Internet plays is back in play again. Brian Malloy: ..."We closed above 104. The market as always will jump around but barring some extraneous event, CMGI is in an uptrend with 90 percent probability."
Yahoo's tight shorts
Stock in Yahoo (YHOO: news, msgs) made Monday's most active list with a big bounce. Yahoo moved in a 13 1/2 point range in Monday trading, and that in itself was reason enough to get the Yahoo blood pumping. At the Yahoo message board, the fact that the stock moved so much and finished with less than a 5 point gain had some disappointed. Said golfin fool: ..."A pathetic way to finish after being up 10 intraday. 6 months ago this would have rocketed 20+ after a midday rally like that. Our belief that the earnings run has started was wrong. This stock had no legs after 2 p.m.. No support or strength. Yahoo remains shaky." But from BellaSepsis: ..."Your memory is too long. It isn't six months ago. It is today. Things change and considering how crappy Yahoo has been doing lately I would think you would thank your lucky stars for any kind of a positive day."
The inevitable "told you so" gloating that has longs and shorts at constant odds on message boards gave the upper-hand to the long-term investors this time. From flapdoodle3: ..."Shorts are in a panic right now. They don't even have time to write messages 'cause they are on the phone with their brokers going over terms for covering ... ouch!" Said BamWamThankYouMam: ..."I think they are paying for it now. I love to short stocks, BUT when the time is right. Right now shorts are feeling what longs went through a couple weeks ago. That tells you market has no love lost for one or the other." And on the East Coast's hottest day of the year, this from golfin fool ..."Watch the shorts run for the exits like frenzied rats as the Yahooligan Train comes rocketing down the track. The only thing hotter than Yahoo today (are) the NYC sidewalks!"
Jeff Clabaugh writes for CBS.MarketWatch.com
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