I also follow Hayes and he missed the rally in 98, he missed the rally in 99, and he missed the rally in early 2000. Listen closely to his ARMS index, and it never said 11-12K in DOW in 1.5 months! Don also said that the rally would be a COUNTER TREND rally. He still feels risk could be shifted rather quickly to the down side. Also Hayes did not call for NASD to participate.
Hayes leaves too much to be desired. Why couldn't the current rally in NASD from 1600-2200 be that rally he predicted, and the DOW going from 9000-11300 in 1.25 months could be the end of that rally?
My argument is simple, VALUATIONS and FUNDAMENTALS are not present in the current market, its a bet that the second half will be fine just because Greenspan lowered rates by 5X, I don't buy that argument!!
There is a lot more going on and lower rates will not be the trick this time. Bottom line INTERNET venture, and TELEcom networking took us to 5000 and 11000 in the DOW, going forward what will be the catalyst? Inflation ?, cost of energy? Power?
I believe the current bear market is SECULAR! Watch closely what happens to Europe over the summer. Valuations do count and until we get signs that companies are GROWING not shrinking the nasd and the dow will not proceed to make gains. The current enviroment tells me we just went through a Greenspan PUMP!! As the weeks go by watch how many ANAL_YST turn and say DOW and NASD must retest lows!
Good luck!! |
