Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: JSLyons who wrote (2382)	3/24/2002 6:37:40 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95546

Valuation may be misused by some, but we want to know when prices discount the next cycle's peak earnings. For AMAT, I have seen $5.50/share guessed at by an analyst based on AMAT management's forecast (guess) of $20B in sales at the next peak. I apply a PE of 20-30 and get $110-165. AMAT's guess is 2005, mine is 2007-8. It might be useful if others present peak estimates for their favorites. As I stated in 1999, estimates improve as we get closer to the peak and the market is likely to discount the peak early and give us ample time to exit gracefully.

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