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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 57.02-0.6%3:59 PM EST

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (239)6/17/1999 10:21:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Ralf:

Thanks for asking. I have nothing against pharmas, nothing at all. However, there are certain companies that tend to retain managers whose ethics I do not respect.

I was "trained" in the Bayer system, and, until they made a mistake with respect to my management, I was a very, very happy camper. The emphasis was always on quality science and open disclosure. I have nothing but respect for the system, but...... they managed themselves into also-ran status in biotech. The MLNM deal will pay, but there will be some very lean days in the interim. They should be out hunting right now.

Certain other companies, like RPR, made big commitments up front and didn't have a clue. I respect them, but don't envy the position that they will find themselves in. Novartis made the single biggest blunder in biotech with SyStemix (and the Chiron deal just amazed me, given the lame effort at therapeutics), but they just kept plugging away. Class act, lots of wisdom.

American Home Products is far and away the best at managing biologists, IMO.

Lilly...... guts...... what else can you say about a company that takes activated protein C to phase III? If a given Bayer scientist (not me) had worked for Lilly in '85 instead of the bozos at Bayer, Lilly would have blood-endothelial interactions wrapped up.

Pfizer..... I have no respect for them whatsoever.

Merck..... class act, mediocre shot at relative success in 10 years.

Searle (Monsanto)..... second generation cox-2 inhibitor according to Biotech Jim (and when he talks, I listen), and I wish the company all successes.

Roche and BMY..... picture a cross between RPR and AHP.

My favorites going forward, where it will begin to show in about five years...... Novartis, Novartis, Novartis, Novartis and Schering Plough.

I left several companies out. I like Warner Lambert.... anybody who shakes hands with Peter Johnson deserves a serious look in my book.

Once again.... if there were any VCs out there with guts, one could now put together "consortiums" of lower-tier biotechs that could be competitive as major pharmas in ten years. Since there aren't any VCs with guts and since AMGN hasn't got a clue, it looks like it will be up to MLNM.

If only Genetics Institute had filed a few weeks earlier.

Rick
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