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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 51.59

-1.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Arthur Radley who wrote (23742)	7/13/2007 3:59:16 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Sonus just filed a mixed shelf, and is temptingly weak today, closer to $5 now. The P2b in metastatic breast cancer looks pretty solid to my untrained eye. But the dropout rate . . . is that a bit high? Not sure how it compares to other taxanes. And it appears to be fairly small, and uncontrolled . . . and in Russia. Don't know how many sites. sonuspharma.com Anyone else have comments on this poster? The P3 data for which the above data is the support, is due in two or three months. Might be a good trade here. It does not seem to be heavily shorted, and open interest is heavily weighted to the call side, especially in the November series, which is obviously the one to be in. Apparently the non-inferiority range is 20%, but it will need to show similar survival to paclitaxel to succeed, even if it hits that fuzzy endpoint. The strategy might be to buy around now and either buy puts soon, or simply bail part of the position as the fateful day approaches. Cheers, Tuck

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