I'm no analyst and don't intend to speak as an expert: however, given that disclaimer, I think that the market is large enough (estimates of $3 Billion by 2000 for Lithium batteries) to satisfy several players. The "race" has been going on for some time. When VLNC stumbled in 1994, everyone thought they were done for, hence the drop to $1.5, as they would surely lose the "race". However, commerical production of lithium batteries is apparently a VERY DIFFICULT task, not something you can solve overnight, or even over a year.
Given Valence's association with Delphi until at least 1998 (signed a 4 year deal in 1994), several joint ventures with overseas companies, etc., etc., I would side with Valence to get in there pretty close to first. First to market never hurts, but it's not the end of the world if they don't. |
