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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (24129)1/14/2004 8:20:51 PM
From: Dayuhan   of 793883
 

Do you think they will be closer to the Ba'athists and Jihadists running the insurgency? Do the insurgents have widespread popular support?

In some areas, yes, in others, no. It doesn’t much matter either way. Even in the places where the populace and their leaders are not behind the insurgency, they aren’t behind us either – they are for themselves.

The ones with the upper hand right now are the Shiite militants. They aren’t fighting us, of course. They don’t have to. Sooner or later there will have to be elections. The longer the insurgency goes on, the more pressure there will be to make it sooner. Elections mean a Shiite-dominated government, and once an elected government is in place, they can tell us to get stuffed. The US isn’t going to turn around and “do” a government elected under our own supervision.

This is the risk, not a Baath revival. While our attention is on the insurgents, do you really think the Shiite leaders are studying up on Tocqueville and Adam Smith?
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