Political Perceptions: Hillary Makes the 'Electable' Pitch
WSJ WASHINGTON WIRE
In Campaign 2008
Here's a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:
by Gerald F. Seib and Sara Murray
Does the Democratic nomination fight turn on the question of who is more "electable" in November? Slate's Christopher Beam says Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign wants you to think so — and is stretching its argument a bit. "With her shot at the nomination hinging on the whims of the superdelegates, the Clinton campaign is turning the 'electability' argument up ? Their premise is that Clinton is more likely to win swing states than Obama is." But Sen. Barack Obama's "retort is that he would win swing states, too — just different ones — and that he would create new swing states." Beam cites evidence backing the Obama claim, including a new NBC projected electoral map showing that "Obama could win the nomination without Florida and Ohio since he would put Colorado and Virginia in play."
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Clinton campaigned in Fairless Hills, Pa., Monday. (Associated Press)
But Clinton "has made it clear publicly that she isn't going away," and neither is the seemingly endless discussion of what to do about Florida and Michigan, reports Suzanne Smalley of Newsweek.com. Not only is Democratic national chairman Howard Dean getting more active in looking for a way to seat the two states' delegates — stripped of their convention spots because the states violated the party's wishes by moving up their primaries on the election calendar — but other efforts are stirring as well. "Ron Klein, an uncommitted Florida superdelegate and a Democratic congressman from Boca Raton, said the state's congressional delegation is actively negotiating with both campaigns to work out a mutually acceptable formula for counting Florida's delegates. Klein waved off suggestions that Obama's campaign lacks an incentive to cooperate, saying both candidates recognize how important it is for the party that Florida's voters feel involved."
Also, there are two things to remember about Clinton's money struggles, now that we've seen Obama out fund raise her 2-1, says washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza. "The first is that money is not conclusive when it comes to results. As the Clinton campaign is fond of pointing out, she was drastically outspent by Obama in Ohio and Texas and managed to win the primaries in each of those states in spite of that differential." The second isn't so favorable for Clinton. "Perception matters when it comes to money. If Clinton is perceived to be in financial peril, she becomes a much less attractive investment for donors deciding where to give their money," says Cillizza. Even if Clinton doesn't need as much money as Obama to win, she does need enough to stay afloat.
On the issues side, the Democrats shouldn't be so wary of talking about Iraq, Ilan Goldenberg writes on the Huffington Post. There are two basic messages they could pursue. The first: "Democrats need to link national security to domestic failures and argue that the Bush Administration has the wrong priorities." And the second: "arguing that Republicans have been reckless and irresponsible in Iraq and and that Democrats will bring our troops home and focus on the other national security challenges that we face all over the world."
Democracy Corps conducted a poll to test both methods and it turns out the second one, which takes a more head-on approach to the issue, resonated better with voters. "The security message has a broader appeal to the swing constituency that is necessary for a general election," Goldenberg notes. "Democrats have a long history of being afraid to talk about national security. But this time they shouldn't shy away from the debate, because it looks like they can win it."
Meantime, Sen. John McCain has been touring the country to talk about his life — but not much about his religious life, reports Politico's Jonathan Martin. "In an Oprah Winfrey era in which soul-baring and expressions of faith are the norm for public figures, the presumptive Republican nominee, open and candid about much else, retains a shroud of privacy around his Christianity," Martin writes. "Raised Episcopalian, McCain now attends a Baptist megachurch in Phoenix. But he has not been baptized and rarely talks of his faith in anything but the broadest terms or as it relates to how it enabled him to survive 5½ years in captivity as a POW." This, Martin says, makes "McCain, 71, "a throwback to an earlier generation, when such personal matters were kept personal." |
