Clinton/Blair/Schroeder have a lot in common, especially their ability to talk left while moving right.
Here's an interesting story re: the impact of the impeachment in 2000.
latimes.com
Thursday, December 24, 1998
Impeachment Votes Already Echo in 2000
By JANET HOOK, Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON--The gavel that slammed down on the
House votes to impeach President Clinton also signaled the
opening shot of the 2000 congressional campaign.
A moderate House Republican from New York who opposed
impeachment already has drawn a primary opponent angered by his
stand. A likely Democratic challenger to Rep. Brian P. Bilbray
(R-San Diego) in 2000 went to Balboa Park to denounce the
incumbent's support for impeachment. And some liberal activists,
not content to wait until 2000, are looking into whether they should
mount recall campaigns against impeachment advocates.
The electoral impact of the House's landmark action is diverse
and hard to predict almost two years in advance. But analysts said it
is the Democratic Party that may manage to reap political benefit
from the impeachment of a Democratic president.
House Republicans pushed impeachment despite popular
sentiment against ousting Clinton, and Democrats hope that public
outrage will boost their fund-raising, improve candidate recruitment
and help the party win the House in 2000. Initial signs are
encouraging for them on all fronts.
"We're six seats away from regaining a majority," said Dan
Sallick, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee, referring to the slim margin by which the GOP will
control the House next year. "Clearly, the activists and infrastructure
are revved up. This should create an excellent recruiting
environment for Democrats."
GOP Acknowledges It Rolled the Dice
Republicans acknowledge that they made a big roll of the dice in
assuming that the impeachment issue will not resonate with voters
two years from now. Some even acknowledge that it is a gamble
they would not be surprised to lose.
"The fundamental irony is, if impeachment goes to its logical
conclusion, the party of the president will be most benefited," said
Rep. James A. Leach (R-Iowa), a moderate who voted for
impeachment. "And I accept that I, as an individual representative,
will be severely jeopardized."
Even before Saturday's votes to impeach Clinton on two
charges--perjury and obstruction of justice--arising from his
relationship with Monica S. Lewinsky, the incoming chairman of the
House Democratic campaign committee was warning of dire
consequences for moderate Republicans who backed
impeachment.
"The gloves are off and we are going after them with everything
we have," Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy (D-R.I.) told reporters.
Indeed, several Republicans already have been singled out.
The Connecticut Democratic Party is laying plans to recruit a
strong opponent for Rep. Nancy L. Johnson, a moderate
Republican who supported impeachment. The Democrats have
issued a statement lambasting her for being a "partisan vote for
whatever is the will of her party bosses." It is a theme that was used
effectively when Johnson nearly lost her seat in 1996 after
overseeing an ethics investigation that critics said went easy on
House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). Democrats believe that her
impeachment votes will give the argument even more force.
In San Diego, after Bilbray announced his eleventh-hour
decision to vote for impeachment, Democratic City Councilwoman
Christine Kehoe helped lead the anti-impeachment rally in Balboa
Park. Kehoe nearly defeated Bilbray in 1998 and has said that she
may run again in 2000.
People for the American Way, a liberal group, is researching the
legality of circulating recall petitions to unseat members of
Congress, a move clearly targeted at Republican moderates who
supported impeachment. Legal experts are divided on the question.
Even a GOP moderate who ultimately came out against
impeachment the day before the vote, Rep. Constance A. Morella
of Maryland, may feel political repercussions. Her 1998
Democratic opponent, former civil rights leader Ralph Neas,
criticized her for taking so long to make up her mind and said that
he will challenge her again in 2000.
Rep. Amo Houghton (R-N.Y.), another moderate who opposed
impeachment, has intraparty worries. He drew a conservative
primary opponent for the 2000 campaign just days after he
announced his position.
Pro-Impeachment Democrat Targeted
At least one of the five Democrats who backed impeachment,
Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. of Virginia, may face a primary challenge.
"He upset a lot of Democrats," said Carl Eggleston, Democratic
Party chairman in Goode's district. "It will be a bumpy road for him
to get the nomination."
Conservative Democrats who voted against impeachment also
could face electoral backlash, especially those from the South. But
GOP strategists are not eager to make such threats now as they try
to move their party beyond an unpopular impeachment.
"It's not the kind of issue you're going to recruit candidates on,"
said Trey Harden, spokesman for Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.),
incoming chairman of the National Republican Congressional
Committee.
Republican leaders said that they think the issue will fade
dramatically in the 2000 campaign, swamped by other issues and a
presidential campaign in which Clinton will not be on the ballot.
"Two years is an eternity in politics," said Whit Ayres, a GOP
pollster in Atlanta.
Another top Republican strategist said: "In the drama of the
moment, there is always a tendency to overstate its relevance long
after the drama has faded."
The strategist argued that such a miscalculation was made about
the political effect of the 1993 vote on the North American Free
Trade Agreement. Despite predictions of dire electoral
consequences for those backing the accord, it was not seen as a
major factor in the outcome of the 1994 election.
But Democrats said that the impeachment vote is of far greater
significance than NAFTA and likely will be remembered for years
to come. They noted that other elections have been swayed by
controversies that brewed far in advance of an election.
For instance, many Democrats paid a price in the 1994 election
for their 1993 votes on a deficit reduction bill that included tax
increases. And in the 1996 elections, Republicans suffered as a
result of the impasse that briefly shut down the government a year
before.
"You can't forget the most extraordinary political action of this
century," Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party,
said of the impeachment vote. He predicted that it would give
Democrats a powerful issue to use in 2000 against GOP moderates
Bilbray, Tom Campbell of San Jose and Stephen Horn of Long
Beach.
Democrats said that, at the least, impeachment has had an
immediate effect in mobilizing angry members of their party and
encouraging candidates who might not otherwise be willing to take
on an incumbent.
Judith Hope, Democratic Party chairwoman in New York, said
that she has heard from a prospective candidate she believes could
run a strong race against Rep. Rick Lazio (R-N.Y.). The incumbent
is one of several suburban Republicans targeted by New York
Democrats for defeat in two years as a result of their impeachment
votes.
Sallick, the Democrats' House campaign committee spokesman,
said: "The most important thing is not necessarily what
[impeachment] is going to mean in November 2000, but what it
means in terms of recruiting candidates. There are going to be a lot
more Democrats who are going to feel energized and emboldened
to run for Congress than might have been otherwise."
There is even a small chance that natural attrition will tip the
House back into the Democratic camp during the two-year run of
the Congress that takes office next month, although that would
require that at least six Republicans resign or die and be replaced
by Democrats. Nine vacancies occurred altogether in the Congress
that just adjourned after impeaching Clinton, but only one of the
special elections resulted in a party shift.
_ _ _
Times staff writers Marc Lacey and Ronald Brownstein
contributed to this story.
Copyright Los Angeles Times |
