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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site
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To: 4figureau who started this subject1/7/2003 9:32:46 AM
From: 4figureau   of 5423
 
UBS Warburg:

Gold is in virtually uncharted territory at the moment, both in terms of price level and the size of the Comex speculative long positions in the metal. The 1.1 million-ounce change in Comex open interest for Thursday is a clear sign of the size of the speculative trading in the gold market at the moment and. With a dearth of sellers in the market, continued firm prices and further volatility looks likely.

Gold: COTR: Commitment of traders data for the week ending 31 December was released last night showing that speculators had added 0.2 million ounces to their net long positions in that week. Since then, we estimate traders have added more than a million ounces to their net long, most of it on Thursday last week leaving the net long position probably around the 7.5 million ounce level.

Trading: After trading to a high in earlier Asian and European trading gold opened on what would prove to be the highs in New York yesterday and then come lower on profit taking from speculators (on the floor) and investors with banks noted sellers too. Although some buying interest was found around the $352.50 level US equity market strength saw gold back under pressure. One US bank finally forced gold down towards the $351 level but found a large US investment bank a noted buyer at these levels. In Asia, gold came under early pressure from regional professional selling but Japanese buying beneath $350 supported gold. Gold has retained its slightly soft tone in early European trading.

View: The current levels of speculative long position held on Comex are almost unprecedented but in light of the recent additions to the net longs, it seems likely that new money has been attracted into the gold market. Since the size and durability of these flows are unknown and there are few obvious sellers of gold in evidence then gold could hold these levels or even make further gains. We would caution, however, that speculative-led rallies could end as quickly as they have started; physical demand is not supporting the gold price at the current levels.

1m 3m 6m 1y 3y 5y 10y
USD/XAU Impl Opt Vol (Mids) 21 20 18 17 14.5 13.46 13
Gold Fwd Rates 1.30 1.25 1.08 0.95 1.25 1.54 1.82


Silver: Trading: The large change in open interest reported on Friday (for Thursday’s Comex trading) shows that silver, like gold, is benefiting from speculative buying at the moment. Yesterday, silver had a quiet session mirroring the moves in gold.

View: Silver’s catch-up rally has been almost entirely driven by Comex-trading speculators. With a much higher proportion of industrial applications, silver’s prospects looks uncertain at these high levels.
thebulliondesk.com
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