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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 74.72

-0.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: JadooGaar who wrote (24573)	4/23/1999 1:54:00 AM
From: Eric	of 77400

JadooGaar I don't think the price will erode much from here if they don't announce a split this QTR, in fact it will probably consolidate up into the mid 120 range until late spring and then run up to the 140-150 range by July-August. If we get the split in August it will probably be a 2 for 1 and I would expect about a 15 point pop shortly after the announcement. I don't like to see the momentum players working this stock as it pushes the price to unrealistic levels on a short term basis. Since I'm a long term investor it doesn't bother me. In the early years that I owned this company it typically tripled or quadrupled in stock value every year, now we are down to an average of a doubling every year. That rate will continue to slow down and I'm looking for Cisco's stock to be about six times higher than it is now in the next five years. As Frank commented on, splits really don't matter on a valuation basis in the long run. It may attract more attention in the short time horizon but Warren Buffet proved time and again that you don't need to split the stock. JMHO Eric

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