Eno: Why Romney's Strategy Cost Cruz a 75 Delegate Lead Over Trump 
By: Robert Eno | March 09, 2016
Last Thursday, Mitt Romney gave a speech attacking Donald Trump and imploring all three remaining candidates, who are not Trump, to stay in the race. An analysis of the subsequent votes shows that this is the exact wrong strategy, unless achieving a brokered convention was the end goal instead of stopping Trump before the convention.
Recent exit polling, from contests over the last week, shows that virtually all of Rubio and/ or Kasich’s support would go to Cruz over Trump. Using that knowledge, an analysis was performed giving Cruz 80 percent of the combined vote of Rubio and Kasich and Trump the remaining 20 percent. That analysis showed that not only would Trump have lost 48 delegates overall, Ted Cruz would now be leading him in delegates.
First, here’s the actual cumulative delegate totals from March 5th, March 6th and March 8th.
| Donald Trump
| Ted Cruz
| Marco Rubio
| John Kasich
| | | | | | March 5
| | | | | Kansas
| 9
| 24
| 6
| 1
| Kentucky
| 17
| 15
| 7
| 7
| Louisiana
| 18
| 18
| 5
| | Maine
| 9
| 12
| | 2
| March 5 Allocated
| 53
| 69
| 18
| 10
| | | | | | Delegates To Date After March 5
| 391
| 304
| 126
| 37
| | | | | | March 6
| | | | | Puerto Rico
| 0
| 0
| 23
| -
| | | | | | Delegates to Date after March 6
| 391
| 304
| 154
| 37
| | | | | | March 8
| | | | | Hawaii
| 11
| 7
| 1
| -
| Idaho
| 12
| 20
| -
| -
| Michigan
| 25
| 17
| -
| 17
| Mississippi
| 25
| 15
| -
| -
| March 8 Allocated
| 73
| 59
| 1
| 17
| | | | | | Delegates to Date after March 8
| 464
| 363
| 155
| 54
|
Marco Rubio and John Kasich won a total of 69 delegates over the last week. Based on 80 percent of their combined support going to Cruz and 20 percent going to Trump, here’s what the delegate math may have looked like today with both of them out of the race.
Without Rubio and Kasich
| | | | | | Donald Trump
| Ted Cruz
| Marco Rubio
| John Kasich
| After Super Tuesday
| 338
| 235
| 113
| 27
| | | | | | March 5
|
|
|
|
| Kansas
| 7
| 33
| -
| -
| Kentucky
| 20
| 26
| 0
| -
| Louisiana
| 19
| 27
| -
| -
| Maine
|
| 23
| -
| -
| March 5 Allocated Estimate
| 46
| 109
| 0
| 0
| | | | | | Estimated to Date After March 5
| 384
| 344
| 113
| 27
| | | | | | March 6
|
|
|
|
| Puerto Rico
| -
| 23
| -
| -
| | | | | | Estimated to Date after March 6
| 384
| 367
| 113
| 27
| | | | | | March 8
|
|
|
|
| Hawaii
| 6
| 13
| -
| -
| Idaho
| -
| 32
| -
| -
| Michigan
| -
| 59
| -
| -
| Mississippi
| 23
| 17
| -
| -
| March 8 Allocated Estimate
| 29
| 121
| 0
| 0
| | | | | | Projected After March 8
| 413
| 488
| 113
| 27
|
Not only would Ted Cruz have garnered all of Rubio and Kasich’s actual delegates he would have cut Trump’s delegate total by 48 delegates. Cruz today could be leading by 75 delegates had Rubio and Kasich dropped out last Thursday, instead of Romney’s false narrative encouraging them to stay in.
Not only could Cruz be winning by 75 delegates today, had Rubio and Kasich dropped out last Thursday or Friday, Cruz would be leading Trump by five delegates had Rubio and Kasich dropped out after the Cruz surge on Saturday. Here’s a chart showing that math.
| Donald Trump
| Ted Cruz
| Marco Rubio
| John Kasich
| After Super Tuesday
| 338
| 235
| 113
| 27
| | | | | | March 5
|
|
|
|
| Kansas
| 9
| 24
| 6
| 1
| Kentucky
| 17
| 15
| 7
| 7
| Louisiana
| 18
| 18
| -
| -
| Maine
| 9
| 12
| -
| -
| March 5 Allocated Estimate
| 53
| 69
| 13
| 8
| | | | | | Estimated to Date After March 5
| 391
| 304
| 126
| 35
| | | | | | March 6
|
|
|
|
| Puerto Rico
| -
| -
| 23
| -
| | | | | | Estimated to Date after March 6
| 391
| 304
| 154
| 35
| | | | | | March 8
|
|
|
|
| Hawaii
| 6
| 13
| -
| -
| Idaho
| -
| 32
| -
| -
| Michigan
| -
| 59
| -
| -
| Mississippi
| 23
| 17
|
| -
| March 8 Allocated Estimate
| 29
| 121
| 0
| 0
| | | | | | Projected After March 8
| 420
| 425
| 154
| 35
|
Here’s the math, state-by-state proving this.
First, let’s look at March 5th:
Kansas
Kansas awarded 40 total delegates in a proportional primary both at-large and by congressional districts.
Twenty-five at-large delegates will be awarded in a proportional primary with a 10 percent threshold. The 3 RNC delegates were awarded to the statewide winner per Kansas rules. Twelve delegates will be awarded three each for the state’s four congressional districts. These delegates are awarded proportionally with at 10% threshold. The first place finisher has their congressional district Delegate rounded up.
Cruz finished Kansas with 24 delegates, Trump 9, Rubio 6, and Kasich with 1. Without Rubio in the race, here is how it would have played out.
Cruz would have kept the three RNC delegates.
25 at large Delegates
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Cruz
| 48.73
| 24
| 70.9%
| 17.7165
| 18
| Trump
| 23.59
| 9
| 29.1%
| 7.281
| 7
| Rubio
| 16.88
| 6
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 10.79
| -
| -
| -
| -
|
|
In each of the four congressional districts Cruz would perform over 2/3 which when rounded up would have given him all 12 district delegates. With both Kasich and Rubio out Cruz would have had 33 delegates to Trump’s 7.
Kentucky
Kentucky awarded 46 delegates total proportionally based upon a 5% threshold. Donald Trump received 17 delegates, Ted Cruz 15, Rubio 7 and Kasich 7.
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Cruz
| 32.122
| 15
| 57.2%
| 26.313288
| 26
| Trump
| 36.549
| 17
| 42.8%
| 19.696832
| 20
| Rubio
| 16.651
| 7
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 14.7
| 7
| -
| -
| -
|
Without Rubio and Kasich in the contest Trump would have gained 3 delegates and Cruz 11. The final total would have been Cruz 26, Trump 20.
Louisiana
Louisiana awards 46 total delegates in a proportional primary. Delegates are awarded by congressional district and at-large.
Twenty-eight delegates are awarded at-large with a 20% threshold. An additional 18 delegates are awarded by congressional district, three each for the state’s six congressional districts. There is no threshold for the congressional districts. There is no “qualifying vote” by which a new proportion is determined. This means that delegates are unbound if they go to a non-qualifying candidate statewide.
The delegate count from Louisiana stands at 18 Trump, 18 Cruz, 5 Rubio, and zero Kasich with five unbound.
Here’s what happens statewide with Rubio out:
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 41.4
| 18
| 44.9%
| 12.5776
| 13
| Cruz
| 37.8
| 18
| 51.9%
| 14.5264
| 15
| Rubio
| 11.2
| 5
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 6.4
| 0
| -
| -
| -
|
Thirteen delegates would go to Trump, 15 to Cruz and none would be unpledged.
Cruz would have won each Louisiana congressional district gaining 12 delegates while Trump would have six.
The end numbers for Louisiana with Rubio out of the race would be Trump 19 and Cruz 27.
Maine
Maine awarded 23 total delegates in a caucus with a 10 percent threshold. If any candidate garnered over 50 percent of the vote they would have received all delegates in Maine. Rounding starts with the candidate with the most votes, all delegates are rounded up.
Cruz received 12 delegates in Maine, Trump 9, and Kasich 3.
Here’s what happens with Rubio out.
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 32.59
| 9
| 36.6%
| -
| -
| Cruz
| 45.9
| 12
| 62.1%
| 20
| 20
| Rubio
| 8.01
| -
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 12.2
| 2
| -
| -
| -
|
March 5 totals – At the end of the night on March 5, Trump had 391 delegates, Cruz 304, Rubio 126, and Kasich 37. That is an 87 delegate lead for Trump. Without Rubio and Kasich in the race Trump would have had 384 delegates, and Cruz 34. That’s a 40 vote lead for Trump.
March 6, Puerto Rico - On Sunday March 6, 2016, Puerto Rico awarded its 23 delegates in a proportional primary with a 20% threshold. If one candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote, that candidate earns at-large delegates. Rubio soared past that threshold with 73.8 percent of the vote. He earned all 23 delegates.
Here’s what may have happened with Rubio and Kasich out of the race
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 13.6
| -
| 28.6%
| -
| -
| Cruz
| 9
| -
| 69.2%
| 23
| -
| Rubio
| 73.8
| 23
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 1.4
| -
| -
| -
| -
|
At the end of the night on March 6, Donald Trump had 391 delegates, Cruz had 304, Rubio had 149, and Kasich had 37. That’s an 87 delegate lead for Trump. With Rubio and Kasich out of the race it may have looked more like, Trump 384 and Cruz 367. That would be only a 17 delegate lead for Trump. The race is much closer.
March 8
Hawaii
Hawaii awarded 19 total delegates in a proportional primary. Ten delegates were apportioned based on the statewide vote with no threshold. Three RNC delegates were apportioned statewide based on the vote. An additional six delegates were awarded three each for the state’s two congressional districts. Rounding is up to the next whole number starting with the highest vote getter.
Trump received 11 delegates, Cruz 7 and Rubio 1.
Here is what may have happened with Rubio out of the race.
Statewide and RNC would have virtually flipped, with the RNC apportioned at the same 51.7 to 47.1 percent as shown below Cruz would have received 2 RNC delegates and Trump 1
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 42.4
| 5
| 47.1%
| 4.714
| 4
| Cruz
| 32.7
| 4
| 51.7%
| 5.166
| 6
| Rubio
| 13.1
| 1
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 10.6
| -
| -
| -
| -
|
In the two congressional districts Cruz would have received 2 votes each and Trump 1. At the end of the night it would have been Cruz with 13 delegates and Trump with 6.
Idaho
Idaho awards 32 total delegates in a proportional primary with a 20 percent threshold. Any candidate that received over 50 percent of the vote would have received all the votes. Cruz earned 20 delegates and Trump earned 12.
With Rubio out of the race Cruz would have reached the 50% + 1 threshold and would have been awarded all the delegates. Here’s how.
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 28.1
| 12
| 33.4%
| 3.342
| -
| Cruz
| 45.4
| 20
| 66.7%
| 6.668
| 32
| Rubio
| 15.9
| -
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 10.7
| -
| -
| -
| -
|
Michigan
Michigan awarded 59 total delegates in a winner-take-most proportional primary with a 15 percent threshold. If no candidate reached 15 percent, the threshold drops to the highest vote total minus 5%. If one candidate gets over 50 percent, that candidate would have received all of the delegates.
Trump received 25 delegates, Cruz 17, and Kasich 17 delegates on election night.
Here is what may have happened with Rubio and Kasich out of the race.
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 36.5
| 25
| 43.2%
| -
| -
| Cruz
| 24.9
| 17
| 51.8%
| 59
| -
| Rubio
| 9.3
| 17
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 24.3
| -
| -
| -
| -
|
With Rubio and Kasich out, Cruz would have met the 50% threshold in Michigan and would have received all 59 delegates.
Mississippi
Mississippi awarded 40 delegates in a winner-takes-most proportional primary.
Twenty-eight delegates were awarded at-large with a 15 percent threshold. If no candidate reaches 15 percent, the threshold becomes 10 percent.
Twelve delegates are awarded by congressional district, three each for the four districts. The candidate receiving the most votes garners 2 delegates, and the next candidate receives the one additional delegate. If a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes in a district, they receive all of the delegates from that district.
Trump received 25 delegates, and Rubio 15. They were broken down 2-1 for three of the congressional districts, with Trump receiving over 50% in CD3 and garnering all of the votes. Trump was awarded 16 vs 12 statewide delegates.
The rounding process is round to the nearest whole number. With that in mind, Trump and Cruz would each have received 14 statewide delegates.
| Actual Vote
| Actual Delegates
| No Rubio/Kasich % qualifying vote
| No Rubio Kasich
| Rounded No Rubio Kasich
| Trump
| 47.3
| 16
| 49.9%
| 14.44545455
| 14
| Cruz
| 36.3
| 12
| 46.9%
| 13.55454545
| 14
| Rubio
| 8.1
| -
| -
| -
| -
| Kasich
| 5.1
| -
| -
| -
| -
|
Each congressional district will be examined on its own. The final congressional district totals are available at The Green Papers. For this instance, all other non-Trump/Cruz votes are amalgamated.
CD 1
| | | | |
| Raw Vote
| Raw Vote No Rubio Kasich
| No Rubio
| CD Awarded
| Trump
| 49,633
| 52,452
| 46.14%
| -
| Cruz
| 49,948
| 61,223
| 53.86%
| 3
| Others
| 14,094
| -
| -
| -
| Total Raw Vote
| 113,675
| -
| -
| -
| | | | | | | | | | | CD2
| | | | |
| Raw Vote
| Raw Vote No Rubio Kasich
| No Rubio
| CD Awarded
| Trump
| 23,717
| 25,147
| 57.00%
| 3
| Cruz
| 13,249
| 18,969
| 43.00%
| -
| Others
| 7,150
| -
| -
| -
| Total Raw Vote
| 44,116
| -
| -
| -
| | | | | | CD3
| | | | |
| Raw Vote
| Raw Vote No Rubio Kasich
| No Rubio
| CD Awarded
| Trump
| 44,272
| 47,097
| 52.22%
| 3
| Cruz
| 31,797
| 43,099
| 47.78%
| -
| Others
| 14,127
| -
| -
| -
| Total Raw Vote
| 90,196
| -
| -
| -
| | | | | | CD 4
| | | | |
| Raw Vote
| Raw Vote No Rubio Kasich
| No Rubio
| CD Awarded
| Trump
| 56,103
| 59,364
| 52.63%
| 3
| Cruz
| 40,397
| 53,440
| 47.37%
| -
| Others
| 16,304
| -
| -
| -
| Total Raw Vote
| 112,804
| -
| -
| -
|
Mississippi would be the only state that Trump would have won without Rubio and Kasich in the race. He would have received 23 delegates to Cruz’s 17.
This analysis shows that Ted Cruz would have the delegate lead had Rubio and Kasich dropped out last week instead of postponing the inevitable a week or a week and a half. Cruz would have 488 and Trump 413.
Romney’s plea for all three to stay in the race made it more likely that Trump would be the nominee, not less likely by allowing Trump to gain 51 more delegates than he may have otherwise.
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