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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 691.81

+0.6%

Jan 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: j g cordes who wrote (24655)	12/30/1999 1:36:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	of 69542

Hi Jim, >>When does the selling begin in January? Darned if I know! Like Clint my indicators stopped working a few weeks back. I have no feel for what is really happening. I still am picking up rotation between groups and stocks and my SP500 system is still indicating a continuation signal so it looks like the direction is still up. Speaking of rockets, check out QCOM and POCI. POCI was a penny stock only a few short months ago. It is in the optical component business. The only thing I can say about QCOM is WOW. If I had held on to all my QCOM shares that I had earlier this year I could have been semi-retired at age 37. As it is I can only take a few years off. <g> From the article Clint sent me from Wireless Week: Total CDMA Capital Expenditures 1996-2002 (millions) 1996 - 2,333 1997 - 2724 1998 - 4649 1999 - 3934 2000 - 3508 estimated 2001 - 3721 estimated 2002 - 3668 estimated Notice that expenditures are going to be flat the next few years as many carriers have completed the major parts of their build outs. The spending is essentially carriers adding more capacity to urban areas. It looks like rural areas are still not getting much attention. The unknown is the 2.5G and 3G build out. This won't start in a big way till 2001 and there is still some unknowns on whether consumers will want the content that 2.5G/3G can provide. How many people really will be browsing the web from their phones given that the content that can be viewed is limited. Also in this issue: H&Q estimates that QCOM held an 89 percent market share in CDMA application specific integrated circuit sales for 1998, dropping to 77 percent in 1999. Its year 2000 projections put QCOM in a continued market share slide with 43 percent of sales. Gaining market share are DPSC recently acquired by Intel for 1.6 billion and CDMA handset manufacturers such as Nokia and Motorola which develops their own CDMAone chip set. CDMA licensees include PrairieComm, LSI Logic and VLSI(now Philips Semiconductors) but there have been others. Fujjitsu, Seimens, Samsung and Sony have been in the CDMA chip market. Estimate break down for 2000 by market share QCOM 43 percent NOK 25 percent MOT 20 percent DSP 8 percent Samsung 3 percent ERIC 1 percent This is an opinion of QCOM I essentially agree with. streetadvisor.com I am currently riding the remainder of my QCOM position with a trailing stop. Just call me Commander Kong. Yeeha! Yeeha! Too afraid to get off, too afraid to stay in. I have seen this happen with IOMG a few years back. I manage to walk away with a big gain there too, but I watched the rest my position go down to 3 dollars. >>Name of resturatn is NAN at 4000 Chestnut St. Phil. PA. It sounds great. Do they deliver? I need a snack about now. Now I just need a reason to be in Philadelphia. Check out MRVC on the long side for a day trade. Analyst target of 166. Current price 65. It looks like it might be setting up to run again tomorrow after a fund manager gave it a 200 dollar price target on CNBC. The value of the company is in the start ups it has positions in. One is an optical networking company selling to JNPR.

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