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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (24696)	5/14/2000 8:19:00 AM
From: Larry Grzemkowski	Read Replies (2) of 54805

RE: MARKET TIMING Mike, you really sparked my interest with this one. If I were to time the market I would use the 175 day simple moving average of the McClellan Summation Index. Now it really does not make any difference what you would use the point is does timing improve your returns and prevent you from those drastic losses you suffer during long term buy and hold periods. Seeing that I also own the four stocks you mention CSCO, CTXS, GMST and SEBL I did a little study. I went back 3 years to the first buy in the timing model which was 5/4/97. So every other period is buy sell buy sell ect. What the data shows is that long term buy and hold is the best method and you just can not time the market. I bet your surprised :o). So for the period of 5/4/97 to 5/12/2000: ---------------------------%GAIN STOCK-----------LTB&H---------------------TIMING MODEL CSCO--------------816--------------------------400 CTXS--------------1499-------------------------1552 GMST--------------1257-------------------------440 SEBL--------------2357-------------------------1246 CTXS got lucky in the timing and gained 127% from 11/9/99 to 3/21/00. The study made me feel better about the subject and I hope it helps others. The data is below if it copies ok. Larry G CSCO LTB&H TIMED PRICE %GAIN $$$ 5/4/97 6.542 10/28/97 8.94 36.66 8.94 2/10/98 10.812 5/12/98 12.667 17.16 10.47 10/27/98 15.719 2/19/99 25.516 62.33 17.00 4/23/99 29.406 8/5/99 31.125 5.85 18.00 11/9/99 39.75 3/21/00 72.188 81.61 32.68 5/12/00 59.94 %GAIN 816 400 CTXS LTB&H TIMED PRICE %GAIN $$$ 5/4/97 3.292 10/28/97 12.198 270.53 12.20 2/10/98 11.958 5/12/98 14.516 21.39 14.81 10/27/98 17.016 2/19/99 24.406 43.43 21.24 4/23/99 20.719 8/5/99 23.281 12.37 23.86 11/9/99 40.531 3/21/00 92.375 127.91 54.39 5/12/00 52.63 %GAIN 1499 1552 GMST LTB&H TIMED PRICE %GAIN $$$ 5/4/97 3.312 10/28/97 5.406 63.22 5.41 2/10/98 7.906 5/12/98 11.141 40.92 7.62 10/27/98 13.719 2/19/99 15.25 11.16 8.47 4/23/99 28.625 8/5/99 28.906 0.98 8.55 11/9/99 44.562 3/21/00 93.188 109.12 17.88 5/12/00 44.94 %GAIN 1257 440 SEBL LTB&H TIMED PRICE %GAIN $$$ 5/4/97 5.25 10/28/97 9.969 89.89 9.97 2/10/98 11.688 5/12/98 13.375 14.43 11.41 10/27/98 9.812 2/19/99 21.594 120.08 25.11 4/23/99 21 8/5/99 26.688 27.09 31.91 11/9/99 63.125 3/21/00 139.812 121.48 70.67 5/12/00 129 %GAIN 2357 1246

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