[Drilling down, indeed!]
Since I'm just the scribe, you may be asking the impossible. However, never one to pass up a challenge, I'll give it a shot. Remember, I'm giving my own opinions and not a clarification of what was said at the conference.
<< alot of strength between TI and Amati and NEC and Amati >>
<<what does this mean?>>
Both Texas Instruments and NEC are pleased with their alliances and would like to enlarge them further. Ask me to prove this and I can't. It's just how I see it after peaking between the cracks for over a year.
<< . . . 4-channel C6X later in '98 confirmed. . . 2-channel chip in 1Q '98. . . >>
<<<is the 2-channel what we were expecting on October 9th?>>>
Yes, I believe so, and the 1Q'98 availability refers to commercial quantities. They'll be available before then in more limited amts.
<< Siemens is biggest customer. . . >>
<<at this point, why all the peek-a-boo with the Siemens contract? why not just announce it? would be nice to know where siemens is reselling all those overtures.>>>
I've heard it's tied in the telcos at the other end of the buying chain. They say no press, there's no press. The deeper truth probably has to do with the availability of chips and the refusal of some telcos to go public until they're in hand. I'm guessing, to be sure.
<< HKT/NEC contract $350M. . . all HKT's modems are Amati's. . . 2M lines building to 8M lines. . . >>
<<<2-8M lines? over what timeframe? and who gets the $350M? If AMTX has 100% of HKT's ADSL contract, $350M is more than double what JS is projecting for total AMTX sales for all of FY98 and FY99.>>>
I'm sure this goes out beyond 2000, but I don't know how far. It would be worth finding out how many of those lines are for FY'98. From JS's comments in the conference call earlier this summer, I've written in reference to lines deployed in 1998: "HKT - VDSL will be a couple hundred thousand." That comes to over $80M in revenues for calendar year, but FY ends in July, so you could cut that in half. And I would expect far fewer installations in the first half than the second, so let's cut it in half again, and just say $20M from HKT for FY '98. Does that seem plausible?
<< one year lead in VDSL. . . England, Germany & France want prototypes ASAP. .. >>
<<<one year lead over whom? Orckit is in several trials already, with BC and DT among others.>>>
If JS didn't specify, I take that to mean all VDSL vendors. But, again, I only reported what I was told so don't know for sure the status of the others.
<< 1998 revs will be 2 to 3X '97's, 1999 revs will be 2 to 3X '98's. . . revs in '98 $30 to 40M*. . . *based on what they have in hand right now (this from other sources). >>
<<<seems way to low, even based only on known contracts.>>
I agree, but this doesn't include Siemens and nothing but the first BCTEL deployment, which I believe is around 6K. I could be wrong, but I believe I read that somewhere.
<< $2M in software royalties from TI next year. . . >>
<<are these milestone payments or royalties? if the latter, who does TXN have lined up already to use the chips?>>>
I corrected this in another post. It should read Motorola and include a 5% figure as well.
<< confirmed Ina City, Japan. . . >>
<<<So AMTX is part ofthe NTT trial also? why no PR?>>>
I'm guessing because it's through NEC and they've not let anything out yet. Even the HKT release did not include Amati's name, nor did the MCI trials in Iowa. Infuriating, to put it mildly. Were you around last November when the HKT press came out? I had to call Hong Kong and Tokyo to find out if Amati was involved --- and died a thousand deaths while waiting for an answer. We were hanging from slender threads back then and RC didn't have permission to validate our part in it. The only other moment that equals that in intensity is the day I heard USR went with Aware.
<< working with Siemens on new DSLAM. . . AMTX makes all Siemens modems at both ends, they do other C/O stuff. . . . >>
<<<again, at this late date, why no acknowledgement of the contract?>>>
As I said, I think it's the chips. Though it could be something else. There's certainly no question about the size of the contract as I've heard it verified from Siemens.
<< BT may start with CAP, but will require Fujitus and ALA to tear out any and replace with DMT later. . . >>
<<<interesting to see if BT corroborates this.>>>
I'd check with JS first. Remember, I was transcribing what someone else heard. It came to me as "tear out," when maybe JS said "replace." I don't know. I do know BT wanted the bidders to consider a leasing scheme and if this is involved, it would be a matter of requiring the vendors to come and get their old equipment when the new is put in. Sort of like having a refrigerator replaced. I won't deal with anyone who won't haul the old one away.
<< can get Overture8 up to 10Mbps. . . target is 8Mbps at 10-11K feet. . . >>
<<<are 8Mbps and or 10-11K feet magic numbers? would be nice to know what drives the target.>>>
Got me there.
<< 9 vendors want OEM deals. . . >>
<<<very cool. wonder if some of the OEMs are DLC vendors?>>>
I would think so, but no one's said.
<< Looking for a friendly banker, secondary offerring (IMHO only after good news and significant stock rise- due to contracts) or an equity investor. >>
<<<the balance sheet doesn't show enough cash to make it much past the current quarter...>>>
Where did that quote come from??? I didn't write that. Well, I'll take a shot at it anyway.
Amati has a good banker and JS was quoted as saying Amati would do a secondary later this year. That was not my first guess and I'm still not convinced that's the final decision. Call me stubborn. As for cash, yes, the company has to put financing in place, but they have a long line of willing money sources should they need any in the interim and their only problem is knowing whose to accept. I have been told it will all be settled and in the bag by the end of September.
<<<things missing:
ALA license
ADI license
Taiwan
DLC partnerships>>>
I don't believe these were discussed today. :)))
Cheers!
Pat |
