2005 and 2006 statistics and estimates for annual
production of ZINC and LEAD ...
SEVERE EDIT
International
Lead and Zinc Study Group
28 October 2005
Forecasts
Lead – Outlook for 2005 and 2006
Usage
4. Further rises in battery production will be the main driver behind forecast increases in usage of refined lead metal, for instance in China demand will rise by 19.8% in 2005 and 8.7% in 2006. These rises will be the main influence on a predicted increase in global usage of 3.9% to 7.45 million tonnes in 2005 and 3% to 7.66 million tonnes in 2006.
5. Differing trends are anticipated in Europe and the United States. Further falls, of 2% in 2005 and 0.5% in 2006, are forecast in Europe. However, in the United States a partial recovery is predicted with increases of 2% and 1.3% this year and next respectively.
Supply
6. Global lead mine output is forecast to rise by 8.1% to 3.33 million tonnes in 2005 and a further 3.4% to 3.44 million tonnes in 2006 due primarily to increases in Australia, China, India, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Sweden.
7. At 7.37 million tonnes, global production of refined lead metal in 2005 is forecast to be 7.6% higher than in 2004. This will be mainly due to increases in China, India and the Republic of Korea and a 6.6% rise in Europe, where increases in Belgium, Bulgaria and the United Kingdom are expected to exceed reductions in France and Germany.
8. A further forecast rise in refined lead output of 3.4% to 7.62 million tonnes in 2006 will be principally a consequence of further expansion in China and India and increases in Canada, Kazakhstan and Morocco.
9. By the end of 2006 it is likely that all of the lead metal held in the United States Defense National Stockpile (DNSC) will have been sold. Since the start of disposals in 1993 deliveries of refined lead from the DNSC have averaged just over 40,000 tonnes per year.
10. Both Chinese net imports of lead contained in lead concentrates and net exports of refined lead metal are expected to remain close to 450,000 tonnes in 2005 and 2006.
Western World Refined Lead Metal Balance
11. After taking into account the latest information received from its Member Countries, the Group anticipates that there will be a deficit in the Western World refined lead market of just under 80,000 tonnes in 2005. A further deficit of 51,000 tonnes is predicted in 2006.
Zinc – Outlook for 2005 and 2006
Usage
12. In 2005, growth of 9% in China together with increases in India of 9.2% and the Republic of Korea of 6.4% will be balanced by reductions of 10.5% in the United States and 4% in Europe. As a consequence global demand for refined zinc metal is expected to be at a similar level to that in 2004 at 10.52 million tonnes.
13. However, in 2006, demand is expected to rise in all the main regions resulting in an overall expansion of global usage of 5.7% to 11.12 million tonnes. A further increase in China of 9.8% will be due primarily to the continued rapid rise in galvanised steel consumption which, over the period 1984 to 2004, is estimated to have grown from half a million tonnes to over 10 million tonnes per year.
Supply
14. It is predicted that global zinc mine supply will increase by 3.6% to 10.05 million tonnes in 2005 followed by a further rise of 4.2% to 10.47 million tonnes in 2006.
15. The rises are largely due to recent expansions and mine openings in Australia, China and India. The only country in which a significant reduction is predicted is Canada, principally due to the closure of the Bell Allard mine at the end of 2004 and the Bouchard-Hebert and Louvicourt operations earlier this year.
16. Despite a decrease in Europe, global refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 1.5% in 2005 and 3.5% in 2006.
17. This global increase will be driven primarily by expansions in China and India. Indian output is forecast to increase by a substantial 54% this year and a further 29% in 2006 mainly as a consequence of the recent completion of a 170,000 tonne per year refinery at Chanderiya. In China, the commissioning of a number of new refineries, including 100,000 tonne per year capacity plants at Lanping and Jiyuan, will influence increases of 4.4% in 2005 and 4.6% in 2006.
18. In 2004, Chinese imports of refined zinc metal exceeded exports for the first time since 1988. It is expected that net imports will continue to rise in both 2005 and 2006. The majority of the imported material is currently sourced in Kazakhstan.
Western World Refined Zinc Metal Balance
19. Having taken into account Member Countries’ predictions for supply, demand and trade as well as releases from the US Defense National Stockpile, it is anticipated that the Western World refined zinc market will remain in deficit both this year and next. The expected size of the shortfall this year is 272,000 tonnes, rising to 430,000 tonnes in 2006.
Economic, Environment and Recycling
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